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Let the summer begin! The fourth Pirates of the Caribbean will open all by itself with close to $95 million this weekend.
Opening at over 4,000 theaters, Pirates 4 should average a killer $23,500 per theater (for $94 million total). On Stranger Tides is the most coolly-received movie in the franchise by critics (read Mitch Salem’s review), suggesting the multiple from the opening weekend might be on the soft side. Right now, the projected domestic total is $265 million, although $300 million is not out of the question if word of mouth is better than the critical notices suggest. In the meantime, we will stick with the lower domestic total forecast.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
May 20-22 Positive Weekend Total*
Pirates of the Caribbean Dis PG13 35% $94 $265
On Stranger Tides
Pirates Track
At World’s End 5.25.2007 45% $115 $309
Dead Man’s Chest 7.7.2006 54% $135 $423
Curse of the Black Pearl 7.9.2003 78% $47 $305
Dead Man’s Chest 7.7.2006 54% $135 $423
Curse of the Black Pearl 7.9.2003 78% $47 $305
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Thor will duke it out with Bridesmaids for second place. Since Monday, Bridesmaids has slightly outgrossed Thor, and with Pirates opening and taking the action audience, we have to give a slight edge to Bridesmaids.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Bridesmaids Uni -32% $18 $ 95
Thor Par -48% $18 $206
Fast Five Uni -44% $11.5 $214
Priest Sony -60% $ 6 $ 33
Rio Fox -44% $ 4.5 $148
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $170 million total, ranking 4th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $143 million, and May 22-24, 2009 was $170 million. This weekend is looking like $165 million: a fairly average number for this weekend but definitely up over last year if the forecast is accurate.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Last year Shrek Forever After had lofty expectations but failed to deliver. On the contrary, Pirates: On Stranger Tides feels like it can deliver (at least in the first weekend), but we shall see.
5.21.10
Shrek Forever After PAR/ DW PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $98 Actual: $71
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $240 Actual: $238
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $499
MacGruber UNI R Will Forte Kristen Wiig
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
5.22.09
Night at the Museum II: Battle of the Smithsonian FOX PG Ben Stiller Amy Adams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $60 Actual: $54
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $166 Actual: $177
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $235
Terminator Salvation WB PG13 Christian Bale Sam Worthington
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $69 Actual: $43
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $130 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $246
Dance Flick PAR PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have a complete wrap-up based on the actual full-weekend numbers.
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