OPENINGS:  Here’s the crazy thing about the official record-busting $238M weekend estimate for STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (Lucasfilm/Disney), which smashed the previous weekend record by more than 12%, and nearly tripled the prior December record:  it’s on the conservative side.  Flying in the face of most studio behavior in reporting opening weekends, Disney […]

WORLDWIDE STUDIO SCORECARD.   YEAR TO DATE BOX OFFICE. Looking at North American box office, 2015 to date is now +6% above last year and now +3% above the average for this point the past four years ($9.312 billion).  Over the same period, Hollywood films have grossed over $25.0 billion worldwide when we add overseas box office (that’s […]

  After its history-making $120.5M opening day, there were two pre-existing Saturday models that STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (Lucasfilm/Disney) could have followed.  The final Harry Potter was so front-loaded that it crashed by 53% from Friday to Saturday.  On the other hand, Jurassic World gently declined by 15%, similar to the 14% drop for […]

Weekend #51 of 2015 is looking like an amazing $281 million for the top 12 films this weekend, reminiscent of another historic weekend six years ago (see comparisons below). Star Wars: The Force Awakens from Disney should open with $225 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $720 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $1.2 billion, […]

  OPENINGS:  Let’s be clear:  the decision to greenlight a $100M production budget for IN THE HEART OF THE SEA (Village Roadshow/Warners)–a period whaling adventure that features about 10 minutes of a CG whale and is otherwise mostly (spoiler alert) about the cast starving and suffering–was fundamentally insane.  Even if the film had been good, […]

WORLDWIDE STUDIO SCORECARD.   YEAR TO DATE BOX OFFICE. Looking at North American box office, 2015 to date is still +4% above last year and still +1% above the average for this point the past four years ($9.144 billion).  Over the same period, Hollywood films have grossed over $24.3 billion worldwide when we add overseas box office (that’s […]

  Tossing IN THE HEART OF THE SEA (Village Roadshow/Warners) onto what is historically one of the weakest box office weekends of the year–and this year also just days ahead of the arrival of cinema’s Death Star–was a Hail Mary, and it’s not paying off.  Based on preliminary numbers at Deadline, it earned $4M on […]

Weekend #50 of 2015 is looking like a soft $72 million for the top 12 films this weekend, below what we usually see this weekend (see comparisons below). In the Heart of the Sea from Warner Brothers should open with $12.5 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $55 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $105 […]