Articles

December 16, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 12.18-20.2015

Weekend #51 of 2015 is looking like an amazing $281 million for the top 12 films this weekend, reminiscent of another historic weekend six years ago (see comparisons below).

Star Wars: The Force Awakens from Disney should open with $225 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $720 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $1.2 billion, giving it a worldwide box office target of $1.920 billion.  This puts the film on course to be the #1 domestic opening weekend of all-time and the #3 film of all time worldwide.  

Current top 5 worldwide grosses: $2.788 billion for Avatar (released 12.18.2009), $2.187 billion for Titanic (12.19.1997), $1.669 billion for Jurassic World (6.12.2015), $1.519 billion for Marvel’s The Avengers (5.4.2012), $1.515 billion for Furious 7 (4.3.2015)

Current top 5 opening weekends: $208.8 million for Jurassic World (6.12-14.2015), $207.4 million for Marvel’s The Avengers (5.4-6.2012), $191.3 million for Avengers: Age of Ultron (5.1-3.2015), $174.1 million for Iron Man 3 (5.3-5.2013), $169.2 million for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (7.15-17.2011)

Current top 3 December opening weekends: $84.6 million for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (12.14-16.2012), $77.2 million for I Am Legend (12.14-16.2007), $77.0 million for Avatar (12.18-20.2009)

Sisters from Universal should open with $12.5 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $75 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $95 million.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip from Fox should open with $12.0 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $60 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $180 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $240 million.

This would be a new low for the franchise: well below the $443.1 million worldwide for Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (released 12.23.2009 with $219.6 million domestic and $223.5 million overseas), below the $361.3 million worldwide for Alvin and the Chipmunks (12.14.2007 with $217.3 million domestic and $144.0 million overseas) and below the $342.7 million worldwide for Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (12.16.2011 with $133.1 million domestic and $209.6 million overseas).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

December 18-20, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Star Wars: The Force Awakens Dis PG13 94% 225.0 720
Sisters Uni R 78% 12.5 75
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip Fox PG n/a 12.0 60
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

December 18-20, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 LG -46% 6.1 284
The Good Dinosaur Dis -49% 5.2 110
Creed WB -50% 5.1 106
In the Heart of the Sea WB -61% 4.3 29
Krampus Uni -56% 3.7 47
The Night Before Sony -43% 2.4 50
Spectre Sony -53% 1.9 207
Spotlight ORF -36% 1.6 30

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $120 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $127 million (while 2013 was $137 million, 2012 was $100 million and 2011 was $114 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a mind-blowing $281 million, up +135% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +122% from the same weekend last year.  There really isn’t a comparable weekend #51 in the past.  We have to go back to 2009 for a similar weekend, but we have to look at weekend #52 to get close: $260 million for the top 12 films December 25-27, 2009 when Avatar exploded in its second weekend.  But this feels like the film to make history in December.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

12.19.2014

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies WB PG13 Ian McKellen Martin Freeman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $65 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $290 Actual: $255
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $701

Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb Fox PG Ben Stiller Robin Williams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $117 Actual: $113
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $247

Annie Sony PG Jamie Foxx Quvenzhane Wallis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $93 Actual: $86
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $48

Wild Fox R Reese Witherspoon Laura Dern
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $15

12.20.2013

American Hustle Sony R Christian Bale Bradley Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $124 Actual: $150
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $101

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Par PG13 Will Ferrell Paul Rudd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $148 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $46

Walking with Dinosaurs Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $90

Saving Mr Banks Dis PG13 Emma Thompson Tom Hanks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $85 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $29

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.