Weekend #51 of 2015 is looking like an amazing $281 million for the top 12 films this weekend, reminiscent of another historic weekend six years ago (see comparisons below).
Star Wars: The Force Awakens from Disney should open with $225 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $720 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $1.2 billion, giving it a worldwide box office target of $1.920 billion. This puts the film on course to be the #1 domestic opening weekend of all-time and the #3 film of all time worldwide.
Current top 5 worldwide grosses: $2.788 billion for Avatar (released 12.18.2009), $2.187 billion for Titanic (12.19.1997), $1.669 billion for Jurassic World (6.12.2015), $1.519 billion for Marvel’s The Avengers (5.4.2012), $1.515 billion for Furious 7 (4.3.2015)
Current top 5 opening weekends: $208.8 million for Jurassic World (6.12-14.2015), $207.4 million for Marvel’s The Avengers (5.4-6.2012), $191.3 million for Avengers: Age of Ultron (5.1-3.2015), $174.1 million for Iron Man 3 (5.3-5.2013), $169.2 million for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (7.15-17.2011)
Current top 3 December opening weekends: $84.6 million for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (12.14-16.2012), $77.2 million for I Am Legend (12.14-16.2007), $77.0 million for Avatar (12.18-20.2009)
Sisters from Universal should open with $12.5 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $75 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $95 million.
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip from Fox should open with $12.0 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $60 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $180 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $240 million.
This would be a new low for the franchise: well below the $443.1 million worldwide for Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (released 12.23.2009 with $219.6 million domestic and $223.5 million overseas), below the $361.3 million worldwide for Alvin and the Chipmunks (12.14.2007 with $217.3 million domestic and $144.0 million overseas) and below the $342.7 million worldwide for Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (12.16.2011 with $133.1 million domestic and $209.6 million overseas).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND December 18-20, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens | Dis | PG13 | 94% | 225.0 | 720 | |
| Sisters | Uni | R | 78% | 12.5 | 75 | |
| Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip | Fox | PG | n/a | 12.0 | 60 | |
Returning film chart:
|
RETURNING FILMS December 18-20, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | ||||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||||
| Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 | LG | -46% | 6.1 | 284 | ||
| The Good Dinosaur | Dis | -49% | 5.2 | 110 | ||
| Creed | WB | -50% | 5.1 | 106 | ||
| In the Heart of the Sea | WB | -61% | 4.3 | 29 | ||
| Krampus | Uni | -56% | 3.7 | 47 | ||
| The Night Before | Sony | -43% | 2.4 | 50 | ||
| Spectre | Sony | -53% | 1.9 | 207 | ||
| Spotlight | ORF | -36% | 1.6 | 30 | ||
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $120 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $127 million (while 2013 was $137 million, 2012 was $100 million and 2011 was $114 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a mind-blowing $281 million, up +135% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +122% from the same weekend last year. There really isn’t a comparable weekend #51 in the past. We have to go back to 2009 for a similar weekend, but we have to look at weekend #52 to get close: $260 million for the top 12 films December 25-27, 2009 when Avatar exploded in its second weekend. But this feels like the film to make history in December.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
12.19.2014
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies WB PG13 Ian McKellen Martin Freeman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $65 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $290 Actual: $255
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $701
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb Fox PG Ben Stiller Robin Williams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $117 Actual: $113
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $247
Annie Sony PG Jamie Foxx Quvenzhane Wallis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $93 Actual: $86
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $48
Wild Fox R Reese Witherspoon Laura Dern
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $15
12.20.2013
American Hustle Sony R Christian Bale Bradley Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $124 Actual: $150
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $101
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Par PG13 Will Ferrell Paul Rudd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $148 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $46
Walking with Dinosaurs Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $90
Saving Mr Banks Dis PG13 Emma Thompson Tom Hanks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $85 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $29
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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