This weekend will be respectable — the top 12 films should total around $93 million, very typical for this weekend most years, although down 13% from last year when Moneyball and Dolphin Tale both opened. Four films from very different genres open this weekend, none of which should break out significantly. Also, The Master expands somewhat and will break into the top 12.
Opening at about 3,100 theaters Friday, Trouble with the Curve from Warner Brothers should average $5,900 per theater (for an $18.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Trouble with the Curve should go on to gross $65 million total domestically, with a better than average multiple over the opening weekend (typical of a film serving an older audience). At RottenTomatoes, early reviews are not spectacular: 64% positive. Find out with Mitch Salem thinks of Eastwood’s latest.
Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday, House at the End of the Street from Relativity and starring Jennifer Lawrence should average a slightly above par $6,300 per theater (for a $16.5 million opening weekend). Unlike the movie above, this thriller should play out quickly and finish with about $37 million domestic. Clearly, it’s no Hunger Games. No sense of critical reaction for House — the film was not made available to critics.
Opening at around 2,700 theaters, End of Watch from Open Road Films should average a mediocre $4,000 per theater (for an $11.0 million opening weekend). The crime drama starring Jake Gylenhaal and Michael Pena is being well received by critics so far (early reviews are 86% positive), so it might play reasonably well and finish with $40 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,400 theaters, Dredd 3D from Lionsgate should average a similarly soft $3,900 per theater (for a $9.5 million opening weekend). Critics say it’s good (89% positive in early reviews — almost as good as 100% given its sci-fi action genre), but I just feel it won’t click. Maybe I can’t get the Stallone monstrosity Judge Dredd out of my head. Anyway, we are giving this an early forecast of $31 million total domestic.
Finally, The Master expands to many more markets, with a potential $6 million weekend (roughly $15,000 per theater in 400 select locations). That would put the film on a pace for $28 million domestic (and possibly much more if it is showered with awards).
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| September 21-23, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Trouble with the Curve | WB | PG13 | 64% | 18.0 | 65 | |
| House at the End of the Street | Relativity | PG13 | n/a | 16.5 | 37 | |
| End of Watch | Open Road | R | 86% | 11.0 | 40 | |
| Dredd 3D | LG | R | 89% | 9.5 | 31 | |
| The Master (expansion) | Weinstein | R | 86% | 6.0 | 28 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Finding Nemo 3D should swap places with Resident Evil: Retribution, as the family film drops off a typical 34% in the second weekend and the action genre film drops an expected 61% or more.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| September 21-23, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Finding Nemo 3D | Disney | -34% | 11.0 | 68 | |
| Resident Evil: Retribution | Sony | -61% | 8.3 | 52 | |
| The Possession | LG | -48% | 3.0 | 52 | |
| Lawless | Weins | -45% | 2.4 | 41 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $92 million total, ranking 43rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $106 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $91 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $93 million, about even (+1%) with the average comparable weekend over the past four years but down 13% from last year, which had the approximately $20 million openings of both Moneyball and Dolphin Tale.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.23.2011
Moneyball SONY PG13 Brad Pitt Jonah Hill
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $73 Actual: $76
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $35
Dolphin Tale WB PG Harry Connick Jr Ashley Judd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $75 Actual: $72
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $23
Abduction LG PG13 Taylor Lautner Lily Collins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $28
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $54
Killer Elite OPEN ROAD R Jason Statham Clive Owen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $31
9.24.2010
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps FOX PG13 Michael Douglas Shia LeBeouf
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $81
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole WB PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $56 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $84
You Again DIS PG Kristen Bell Jaime Lee Curtis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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