OPENINGS: BOO! A MADEA HALLOWEEN (Lionsgate) took the weekend with $27.6M, Tyler Perry’s biggest start since the $29.3M for 2010’s Why Did I Get Married Too. Perry’s movies tend to run out of steam quickly, but Boo had an encouraging 24% Saturday bump, and even if Boo only reaches $60M in the US (and as usual gets only a tiny overseas release), it will be quite profitable on a production budget around $20M and a targeted marketing campaign.
Things aren’t nearly as promising for JACK REACHER: NEVER GO BACK (Skydance/Huahua/Shanghai Film/Paramount), despite the fact that its studio-estimated $23M weekend is higher than the $15.2M launch of the first Jack Reacher. That movie had a huge multiple from its first weekend because it played through Christmas week, and it also had much better word of mouth, rising 13% on its 2d day of release while Reacher 2 dropped 1%, suggesting that the sequel may not reach its predecessor’s $80.1M US total. The bigger problem is overseas, which is where Reacher 2 was expected to make all its profit. A $31M start in 42 markets is no more than mediocre, especially since that includes only $5.6M from China, which as the production entities noted above imply was supposed to be a huge territory for the film. (Tom Cruise devoted a lot of his time to promoting the China launch.) It’s still possible that Reacher 2 will exceed the worldwide $218.3M worldwide total of the first movie, but with $175M in production/marketing costs, it has very little room to spare.
OUIJA: ORIGIN OF EVIL (Blumhouse/Universal) underperformed at $14.1M, considering that the first Ouija opened at $19.9M. But word of mouth, sparked by strong reviews, may keep Origin buoyant for longer than the ordinary horror sequel, as Origin stayed steady on Saturday, while the first Ouija dropped 8% on its 2d day. A $40M US total should still allow for some profit on the low-budget production. Origin also opened in a few territories overseas with $7.9M.
KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES (20th) was simply a disaster with a $5.6M opening on production/marketing costs that might reach $100M. Things were no better overseas with a $2.5M weekend in 22 markets.
DENIAL (Bleecker Street) expanded to 648 theatres with a very mild $1500 per-theatre average.
I’M NOT ASHAMED (Pure Flix), the latest production aimed at the Christian audience, didn’t even do well with its niche, averaging $1800 at 505 theatres.
A pair of films that haven’t hit the US yet are already earning overseas. TROLLS (DreamWorks Animation/20th) started in 14 territories with $18M. INFERNO (Columbia/Sony), which has been in wide international release for 2 weeks, is at $94.8M after a $28.9M weekend in 58 territories, and will add China and Japan in addition to the US next weekend.
HOLDOVERS: THE ACCOUNTANT (RatPac/Warners) held very well, considering that it faced direct competition from Jack Reacher 2, dropping 43% to $14M. That’s better than last week’s 50% drop for The Girl On The Train, although in the context of Ben Affleck’s adult-thriller career, it wasn’t as strong as the drops of 35% for The Town, 30% for Gone Girl or 16% for Argo. An $80M US total would still make the production moderately profitable if it can show some strength overseas, where it’s currently at $10.2M in limited release.
THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN (DreamWorks/Participant/Reliance/Universal) stabilized with a 41% Weekend 3 drop to $7.3M, and it’s still on track for $75M in the US. In addition, it has $45.1M overseas, and should be able to pull past breakeven.
MISS PEREGRINE’S HOME FOR PECULIAR CIHLDREN (TSG/20th) fell 33% to $6M, and may hit $85M in the US. Luckily for the studio, it’s performing as needed overseas, where it’s at $150M after a $13.5M weekend in 64 markets. With $225M in total costs, it’s still not going to be a bonanza, but it should just about hit profit.
Not unexpectedly, the bottom dropped out of the concert movie KEVIN HART: WHAT NOW? (Universal), as usually happens with that fan-driven genre. It fell 65% to $4.1M, and may not match the $32.2M earned by Hart’s last concert movie Let Me Explain, despite a fairly extensive (and costly) marketing campaign. Chalk this up to talent relations with Hart, a very valuable commodity for the studio.
A trio of fall releases aren’t performing overseas as they desperately needed to. STORKS (Warners Animation) is holding well in the US, down just 28% to $4.1M and on track for $75M, but the $83.1M international total won’t do more than pay the bills. DEEPWATER HORIZON (Summit/Lionsgate) is sunk, heading for $65M in the US after a 43% slide to $3.6M, and with only $36.9M overseas on $225M in costs. THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN (Village Roadshow/MGM/Columbia/Sony) may hit $95M in the US after a 55% drop to $2.4M, but $66.5M overseas won’t pay for its $200M costs.
THE BIRTH OF A NATION (Fox Searchlight) is done, down 66% to under $1M for the weekend, and now unlikely even to earn back Searchlight’s $17.5M license fee, let alone the millions in marketing costs, a testament to the fact that there are no sure things.
LIMITED RELEASE: MOONLIGHT (A24) appears poised to take up the mantle of prestige African-American awards contender, with a spectacular $104K per-theatre average at its 4 NY/LA homes. Not every big exclusive opening translates to mainstream success (The Master, with a $147K opening average and $16.4M US total comes to mind), but it’s certainly a great start. AMERICAN PASTORAL (Lionsgate) managed just a $3K average at its 50 theatres. THE HANDMAIDEN (Amazon/Magnolia), which is far more entertaining than its status as a 2 1/2-hour subtitled costume drama might suggest, started quite well with a $18K average at 5. DESIERTO (STX) expanded softly to 168 theatres with a $2800 average. CERTAIN WOMEN (IFC), now in 41 theatres, averaged $3900. CHRISTINE (Orchard) averaged $3200 at 12. A MAN CALLED OWE (Music Box) is earning solid word of mouth, averaging $2700 after a small expansion to 96 theatres.
NEXT WEEKEND: With Doctor Strange, Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge just around the corner to kick off the holiday movie season, the only notable opening is the US release of INFERNO.
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