Franchises have been dropping like flies this year, but one brand name that still works is Marvel. Its latest extravaganza DOCTOR STRANGE (Marvel/Disney) had an opening day of at least $32M according to preliminary numbers at Deadline (including $9.4M from Thursday night), which should give it a $80M+ weekend. As the kick-off to a new Marvel Universe sub-franchise, Friday was considerably better than the $21.9M for the first Captain America, $25.5M for Thor, and $22.6M for Ant-Man, and it’s running even with the second Thor, also a November opening with $31.9M on its first day (and a $85.7M weekend). Strange should be helped by the fact that its dazzling visuals call out to be seen on a big screen, although it may be limited by the arrival of Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them in 2 weeks. (Thor: The Dark World was similarly sliced by a Hunger Games title on its 3rd weekend.) Even so, it should top $200M in the US and reach $500-600M worldwide, a strong profit on $300M in production/marketing costs.
TROLLS (DreamWorks Animation/20th) had a $12.2M Friday ($900K of it from Thursday night), very similar to the $12.1M for last November’s The Peanuts Movie, which reached $44.2M for the weekend and a $130.2M US total. That should be the Trolls ballpark as well, until it’s swallowed up by the Harry Potter spin-off, and Trolls should have more overseas appeal than Peanuts, which only made 47% of its worldwide total outside the US.
HACKSAW RIDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) is more of a longterm play, which will hope for awards consideration and an older, more red-state audience that will show up over time. Its opening day was a modest $5.1M ($750K from Thursday night), and it’s aiming at a $15M weekend. Hacksaw has at least $100M in production/marketing costs, and may not sell easily overseas, so it will need to play strongly through the coming weeks.
Holdovers were led by BOO! A MADEA HALLOWEEN (Lionsgate), which predictably sank with its titular holiday over, down 54% from last Friday to $2.1M, with a $7M weekend ahead, very profitable at $75-80M in the US.
INFERNO (LStar/Columbia/Sony) collapsed against the new competition, down 65% from last Friday to $1.9M, and hoping for a $7M weekend. It’s unlikely to get much past $40M in the US, and will need every penny of its overseas run (so far at $132.7M) to get past red ink.
The trio of older adult-oriented thrillers was topped by THE ACCOUNTANT (20th), down 31% from last Friday to $1.7M for a $6M weekend and $80M in the US. JACK REACHER: NEVER GO BACK (Skydance/Huahua/Shanghai/Paramount) fell 46% Friday-to-Friday to $1.6M for a $5M weekend and likely $60M US total. THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN (DreamWorks/Participant/Reliance/Universal), the oldest of the group, dropped 42% to $800K from last Friday for a $2.5M weekend and $75M US total.
MOONLIGHT (A24) expanded to 83 theatres for what should be a $12K per-theatre average for the weekend. That’s more than double the $5500 average Room had at 87 theatres, and better than the $7000 for The Danish Girl at 81, although it’s below the level of Spotlight ($22K at 61) or Boyhood ($16K at 107). As more Oscar hopefuls hit theatres, A24 will be challenged to keep Moonlight building beyond arthouses.
Thinking of which, LOVING (Focus/Universal) is off to a moderate start at 4 NY/LA theatres with what should be a $45K weekend average. Best Documentary hopeful THE EAGLE HUNTRESS (Sony Classics) is soft with a probable $6K average for the weekend at 3.
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