WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS November 16-18

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This weekend is looking incredibly strong: over $250 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up 27% from a typical third weekend in November.  The final Twilight (12-34 females), Lincoln (35+ adults), and the second weekend of the strongest Bond yet (young adults) make for a powerful combination.  

Opening at over 4,000 theaters Friday (with late night shows Thursday night/early Friday), Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 from Summit should average an exceptional $36,900 per theater (for an $147.5 million opening weekend).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  Critics are surprisingly receptive so far (81% positive at RottenTomatoes).  Even if that positive review rate settles down, this will be the most warmly received in a series that has not been given much respect critically (see second table below).  We are projecting the final Twilight film will gross $310 million domestic and $725 million worldwide.  Update on Thursday 11.15.2012: Reviews for Breaking Dawn Part 2 did settle down — all the way down to 55% positive as of late Thursday.  Still the best reviewed of the Twilight series, but just barely.

Expanding to around 1,500 theaters Friday, Lincoln from Disney should average a very good $11,400 per theater (for a $17.5 million opening weekend after about $1.4 million in a preview week at 11 theaters).  Critics are enthusiastic (91% positive at RottenTomatoes).  We are projecting Lincoln will hit $75 million domestic.

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

A lot of holdover business from Skyfall, Wreck-It Ralph and Flight, to a lesser extent.

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $202 million total, ranking 2nd of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $215 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $186 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a stellar $256 million, up 27% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 19% from the same weekend last year.   

This Weekend Last Two Years

11.18.2011

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 SUMMIT PG13 Robert Pattinson Kristen Stewart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $148 Actual: $138
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $303 Actual: $281
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $424

Happy Feet Two WB PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $86

11.19.10

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 WB PG13 Daniel Radcliffe Emma Watson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $126 Actual: $125
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $338 Actual: $295
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $660

The Next Three Days LG PG13 Russell Crowe Liam Neeson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $42

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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