The fourth weekend of 2013 should total just under $100 million for the top 12 films, a bit off the normal pace for this weekend but close to last year’s tally. Three new films will open this weekend, none of which have any hope of making an impact.
Opening in about 3,000 theaters Friday, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters from Paramount should average a pedestrian $5,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.8 million wide-opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are silent: this like the other two openers this weekend is being hidden until Friday. Hansel and Gretel will try to get to $45 million domestic.
Opening at about 2,000 theaters, Movie 43 from Relativity should average a similar $5,700 per theater (for an $11.5 million opening weekend). Movie 43 should end up with about $28 million domestic.
Opening at 2,200 theaters, Parker from FilmDistrict should average a weak $3,900 per theater Friday-Sunday (for an $8.8 million opening weekend). Parker is headed for maybe $22 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND January 25-27, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters | Par | PG13 | n/a | 16.8 | 45 | |
| Movie 43 | Rel | R | n/a | 11.5 | 28 | |
| Parker | FilmDis | R | n/a | 8.8 | 22 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Mama should be the strongest holdover, finishing just behind Hansel and Gretel (with its brief moment in the sun, claiming the #1 spot because the competition is so soft).
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RETURNING FILMS January 25-27, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Mama | Uni | -48% | 14.7 | 75 | |
| Zero Dark Thirty | Sony | -36% | 10.2 | 100 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | -28% | 7.8 | 70 | |
| Django Unchained | Weins | -36% | 5.0 | 165 | |
| Les Miserables | Uni | -35% | 4.9 | 150 | |
| Gangster Squad | WB | -47% | 4.6 | 50 | |
| Broken City | Fox | -50% | 4.2 | 20 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | -24% | 4.2 | 175 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $101 million total, ranking 41st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $98 million (while 2011 was $92 million and 2010 was $110 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a mediocre $97 million, down 4% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 1% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
1.27.2012
The Grey OPENROAD R Liam Neeson Dermot Mulroney
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $51
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $26
One for the Money LG PG13 Katherine Heigl Jason O’Mara
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10
Man on a Ledge SUMMIT PG13 Sam Worthington Elizabeth Banks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
The Artist WEINS PG13 Jean Dujardin Berenice Bejo
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89
1.28.2011
The Rite WB PG13 Anthony Hopkins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $31 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $63
The Mechanic CBS R Jason Statham Ben Foster
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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