Although some films have opened well against the Super Bowl, both counterprogramming (the Hannah Montana concert movie and Dear John) and playing toward the action genre (Taken and Chronicle), as a rule the studios stay away, and that was the case this year. The only wide opening was the low-budget horror flick WINCHESTER (CBS/Lionsgate), which had an OK Friday according to preliminary numbers at Deadline with $3.6M ($600K of it from Thursday night), but which will probably sink across the weekend, as happened to last year’s Rings, which collapsed by 69% on Super Bowl Sunday. The weekend is likely to end up around $9M, and a $20M US total might take it to breakeven on the studio’s minimal acquisition and marketing costs.
Most of the Sunday drops this weekend will be in the 60% neighborhood, but a bit less for family movies, which should clear the way for JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (Columbia/Sony) to rebound to the #1 slot. Its Friday was down 24% to $2.8M, which should give it a weekend at $11M, on track for $375M in the US, which will make it among other things the biggest hit of Dwayne Johnson’s career.
MAZE RUNNER: THE DEATH CURE (20th) had a case of frontloaded sequelitis, down 64% from last Friday to $3M, and on its way to a $9M weekend. It probably won’t get past $60M in the US, down 25% from Scorch Trials, and in need of overseas help to avoid red ink.
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (20th) continues to be unkillable in its 7th weekend, down a tiny 7% from last Friday to $2.3M for a weekend at $8M, on the road to passing $150M in the US, which will pull it beyond La La Land in the musical genre.
HOSTILES (Entertainment Services) dropped 48% Friday-to-Friday to $1.7M and should have a $5M weekend, for a US total that should end up around $30M, with limited international prospects.
12 STRONG (Alcon/Black Label/Warners) and DEN OF THIEVES (H Brothers/STX) remained closely linked at the box office, respectively down 35% from last Friday to $1.5M and down 39% to $1.4M. Both should have $4.5-5M weekends, en route to $45-50M in the US.
THE POST (DreamWorks/Reliance/Participant/20th) was still in the lead among major Oscar nominees, down 34% from last Friday to $1.6M, for a $5M weekend and a US total that might hit $80M, which would put it behind only Lincoln among Steven Spielberg’s output in this decade.
Several Oscar nominees kept expanding, trying to capitalize on their honors until the studios start pouring prime product into the market over the next few weeks. THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight) widened by 26% and dropped 19% from last Friday to $1.3M, aiming for a $4M weekend as it shoots to pass $50M in the US. 3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) grew its theatre count by 19% and lost 9% from last Friday to $900K, for a $3M weekend and US total that should pass $45M. I, TONYA (Neon) padded its theatres by more than 50% and still shed 10% from last Friday to $760K for a $2-2.5M weekend, as it hopes to reach $30M in the US. DARKEST HOUR (Focus/Universal) added 12% more theatres and fell 6% from last Friday to $700K for a $2M weekend that positions it to pass $50M in the US. PHANTOM THREAD (Focus/Universal) increased its theatres by 16% for a Friday-to-Friday 22% drop to $600K for a $2M weekend as it heads to perhaps $20M in the US.
LADY BIRD (A24) kept its theatre count relatively stable, down 5%, and fell 24% from last Friday to under $400K for a weekend that should nudge past $1M and a US total that will move beyond $45M. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Classics) was the Oscar outlier, down by 29% in theatres and 28% from last Friday to $250K for a $750K weekend, as it hopes to hit $15M in the US.
The lone notable limited opening was Foreign-Language Film nominee A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Sony Classics), headed for a meh $10K per theatre average at 5 arthouses.
About the Author
