OPENINGS: Although the numbers are lower, RAMPAGE (New Line/Warners) is playing much like Kong: Skull Island, another giant monster movie judged by parents to be child-friendly. Rampage rose 20% on Saturday, giving it a 3x multiple for the weekend at $34.5M, almost identical to Kong‘s trajectory (it had a 19% Saturday bump). If that comparison holds up, Rampage should reach $95M in the US. The question is whether that will be enough for a project with roughly $250M in production/marketing costs. Internationally, Rampage was again like Kong in its China appeal, with $55M of its $114.1M weekend from that country (Rampage is now playing in most of the world, although France, Germany and Japan, where collectively Kong earned $38.7M, are still to open). If Rampage gets to $350M worldwide, it would probably be close to breakeven, while $400M might be a small win (depending on part on how Dwayne Johnson’s deal is structured).
TRUTH OR DARE (Blumhouse/Universal) had a solid $19.1M start in the US, about 27% below Blumhouse’s Happy Death Day, which suggests a $40M US total. That’s nothing to get excited about once marketing costs are added to the low production budget, but there should be some mild profit ahead. Overseas, Truth Or Dare began its campaign with $2.7M in 7 markets.
ISLE OF DOGS (Fox Searchlight) expanded to wide release at 1939 theatres with an OK $5M, considerably less than the $7M The Fantastic Mr Fox had when it reached 2031. It seems likely to end up at $25-30M in the US, and although Searchlight hasn’t disclosed a budget, if it cost the same $40M to produce as Mr Fox, which seems likely, that’s not a road to profit barring significant overseas success. Currently, Dogs is at $8.7M internationally, mostly from the UK.
BEIRUT (Bleecker Street) is the kind of middle-aged, mid-priced drama Hollywood rarely makes anymore, and here’s why: despite mostly favorable reviews (78% on Rotten Tomatoes), it managed an anemic $1.7M in 855 theatres ($2M with Wed-Thurs added), and will soon be on the small screen.
Numbers for SGT STUBBY: AN AMERICAN HERO (Fun Academy) aren’t readily available, but estimates have it at a dim $1M at 1685 theatres.
HOLDOVERS: A QUIET PLACE (Paramount) had a terrific hold for a horror movie, down 35% to $32.6M, and just a few dollars away from $100M, with plenty of room ahead. That’s almost identical to the 36% Weekend 2 drop for Split (particularly impressive since Quiet Place faced instant head-to-head competition from Truth Or Dare), and suggests Quiet could find its way to $175M in the US, a giant success. It’s also at $51.7M overseas after a $22.3M weekend in 55 territories that don’t yet include China, Japan, France or Spain.
READY PLAYER ONE (Reliance/Village Roadshow/Warners) is running out of quarters, down 55% in Weekend 3 to $11.2M, and heading for $135M in the US. The overseas numbers are better, with $360.2M after a $33.8M weekend in 55 markets, but a disproportionate $192.8M of that is from China, where Warners will only collect around $50M. With $300M+ in costs, Player‘s profitability is still unclear, as its final big-market opening in Japan approaches next week.
BLOCKERS (Good Universe/Universal) was hoping for a better than 50% hold in its 2nd weekend, dropping it to $10.3M, on track for $55M in the US. The good news is that it’s showing some strength overseas, with $16M to date after a $3.9M weekend in only 21 markets.
BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) dipped just 39% in its 9th weekend to $5.3M, on its way to $685M in th US, and with $639.7M overseas.
I CAN ONLY IMAGINE (Roadside) finally hit the wall on its ability to add theatres, and between that and the end of Easter season, it fell 51% to $3.8M. It should still top $80M in the US, a superb result for a niche title with low production and marketing costs.
ACRIMONY (Lionsgate) fell 55% in its 3rd weekend to $3.7M, and if it gets to $45M in the US, it will be the 7th of Tyler Perry’s films not to reach $50M.
CHAPPAQUIDDICK (Entertainment Services) lost 48% in its 2nd weekend to $3M and probably won’t see $20M in the US.
THE MIRACLE SEASON (LD) didn’t live up to its title, down 47% in its 2nd weekend to $2.1M, en route to $10M or so.
LIMITED RELEASE: THE RIDER (Sony Classics) was only able to ride its mostly rapturous reviews (96% on Rotten Tomatoes) to a mild $15K per-theatre weekend average at 3 NY/LA arthouses. YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE (Amazon) expanded to 51 with an OK $6400 average. FINDING YOUR FEET (Roadside) jumped to 277 with a $1100 average. LEAN ON PETE (A24) averaged $4400 at 18. FINAL PORTRAIT (Sony Classics) averaged $1200 at 32.
NEXT WEEKEND: With Avengers 3 just over the horizon, the openings are small-stakes: comedies I FEEL PRETTY (STX) and SUPER TROOPERS 2 (Fox Searchlight), and thriller TRAFFIK (Lionsgate). GODARD MON AMOUR (Cohen) enters limited release.
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