The 13th weekend of 2013 looks like it will be even with the pace for the comparable weekend the past few years. The top 12 films Friday-Sunday should total about $144 million.
Opening at a very high 3,719 theaters Thursday, G.I. Joe: Retaliation from Paramount should average a solid $10,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $38 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre (42% positive reviews so far). Retaliation should be on course for $125 million domestic (below the $150.2 million domestic total for G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra in August 2009).
Opening at approximately 2,000 theaters Friday, Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor from Lionsgate should average a good $8,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Temptation is on track for about $45 million domestic (slightly above the $35 million for the last non-Madea Tyler Perry film Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds in February 2012).
Opening at a slightly above average 3,200 theaters Friday, The Host from Open Road Films should average a soft $4,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $14.5 million opening weekend). No critical support ahead: only 20% positive in early reviews. The Host is on track for about $31 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 29-31, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| G.I. Joe Retaliation | Par | PG13 | 42% | 38.0 | 125 | |
| Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor | LG | PG13 | n/a | 17.5 | 45 | |
| The Host | OpenRoad | PG13 | 20% | 14.5 | 31 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Now there are three holdovers headed for well above $10 million, with The Croods near $30 million for its second weekend. It’s been a while since even that much bench strength has helped a weekend along.
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RETURNING FILMS March 29-31, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Croods | DW/Fox | -36% | 28.1 | 155 | |
| Olympus Has Fallen | FilmDis | -48% | 15.8 | 88 | |
| Oz the Great and Powerful | Dis | -41% | 12.7 | 235 | |
| The Call | Sony | -49% | 4.6 | 51 | |
| Admission | Foc/Uni | -40% | 3.7 | 18 | |
| Incredible Burt Wonderstone | WB | -50% | 2.2 | 25 | |
| Spring Breakers | A24 | -55% | 2.2 | 19 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $143 million total, ranking 16th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $140 million (while 2011 was $114 million and 2010 was $169 million, when Clash of the Titans opened and How to Train Your Dragon had its second weekend). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very normal $144 million, even with the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up a small 2% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
3.30.2012
Wrath of the Titans WB PG13 Sam Worthington Liam Neeson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $37 Actual: $33
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $90 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $218
Mirror Mirror REL PG Julia Roberts Lily Collins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $98
4.1.2011
Hop UNI PG James Marsden Kaley Cuoco
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $38
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $115 Actual: $108
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $76
Source Code SUMMIT PG13 Jake Gyllenhaal Vera Farmiga
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $55
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $69
Insidious FILMDIS PG13 Patrick Wilson Rose Byrne
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $38
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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