OPENINGS: ANT-MAN & THE WASP (Marvel/Disney) turned out to be rather front-loaded, with a 30% Saturday drop (compared to 14% for the 2nd day of Ant-Man). That pushed the studio weekend estimate down to $76M, which is still 33% better than Ant-Man‘s debut, but at the low end for Marvel, ahead of only the first Thor and Captain America movies and The Incredible Hulk, all of which were at the very beginning of Marvel’s reign. Wasp may not get to $200M in the US (joining those same titles), although it will still be quite profitable on $300M in production/marketing costs, assuming international appeal. Because of the World Cup, the film is having a somewhat staggered overseas release, and opened at $85M in 41 markets, with most of Europe and China among those to come.
THE FIRST PURGE (Blumhouse/Perfect World/Universal) needed 5 days to reach $31.1M, where its predecessors had earned $29.8M-$34.1M in just 3 days. The Friday-Sunday portion of the total was $17.2M, suggesting a $65M US total, which would tie it with the first Purge and put it behind both previous sequels. Unlike most action franchises, The Purge makes the bulk of its money in the US, and First Purge had a $10.9M start in 26 markets. A $100M worldwide total would be mildly profitable.
HOLDOVERS: INCREDIBLES 2 (Pixar/Disney) had a solid Weekend 4 hold, down 38% to $29M, and is no track for $565M in the US. It’s already made history with its $504.4M to date, however, passing Finding Dory to become the highest-grossing animated film in US history. It’s continuing a gradual overseas release with a $35.7M weekend in 39 territories and $268.4M so far.
JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM (Legendary/Perfect World/Universal) fell 53% in its 3rd weekend to $28.6M, and now seems dicey to hit $400M in the US, down 39% from the first Jurassic World. It’s running out of steam overseas, too, where it had a $27.6M weekend for $725.3M to date, with Japan opening next weekend. At $1.2B worldwide, it’s of course a tremendous hit, but off its predeessor’s pace by around 30%.
SICARIO: DAY OF THE SOLDADO (Black Label/Columbia/Sony) took a 62% hit in its 2nd weekend, down to $7.3M and likely to end up barely ahead of the first Sicario‘s $46.9M, and with higher costs this time. There’s no relief overseas, where it’s at an ugly $15.5M after a $3.8M weekend in 63 markets. It’s hard to see a path to profit.
UNCLE DREW (Lionsgate) gambled that there was room for its family-oriented comedy amidst the blockbusters, but it’s not paying off, with a Weekend 2 57% drop to $6.6M, and a possible $45M US total. International prospects are limited, so even with relatively low costs, this one may not get out of red ink.
OCEAN’S EIGHT (Village Roadshow/Warners) is one of the leggier summer titles, down 37% in its 5th weekend to $5.3M, and on its way to a possible $140M US total. The less good news is overseas, where it’s at $110.1M after a $7.7M weekend in 62 territories, with Italy and Japan to come. At best, Eight will exceed its US total by about 10% overseas, while the other films in the franchise had at least 50% better results internationally than at home.
TAG (New Line/Warners) is still in the game with a 47% drop t9 $3.1M in its 4th weekend, hoping to reach $55M in the US. Overseas release has been minimal thus far, with $12.5M to date.
WON’T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR (Focus/Universal) expanded again, this time by 37% to 893 theatres for a $2.6M weekend that’s made it the year’s #1 documentary, with a real chance of reaching $20M. If it passes Bowling for Columbine‘s $21.6M, it would become one of the top dozen documentaries in US history (not adjusting for inflation).
LIMITED RELEASE: The year’s documentary surge didn’t seem to extend to WHITNEY (Roadside), which opened at a near-wide 452 theatres with a merely OK $1.3M, a $2800 weekend per-theatre average that was below Neighbor‘s $2900, even though Neighbor has been running for a month and is in almost twice as many theatres. The expansion of 3 IDENTICAL NEIGHBORS (Neon) was more promising, with a $14.1K average at 51. On the scripted side, SORRY TO BOTHER YOU (Annapurna) had a terrific start, averaging $45K at 16. LEAVE NO TRACE (Bleecker Street) held well, with a $11.5K average at 37. On the other hand, BOUNDARIES (Sony Classics) floundered with an $1100 average after expanding to 224.
NEXT WEEKEND: We’re largely past the A-level summer openings, leaving us with the Dwayne Johnson vehicle SKYSCRAPER (Legendary/Universal) and HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION (Sony Animation/Columbia). Limited releases include Sundance titles DON’T WORRY, HE WON’T GET FAR ON FOOT (Amazon) and EIGHTH GRADE (A24).
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