OPENINGS: For a movie aimed at children that isn’t a frontloaded franchise installment, WONDER PARK (Nickelodeon/Paramount) had an unimpressive 19% Saturday bump, and it emerged with a $16M weekend that won’t do it much good against production/marketing costs in the neighborhood of $200M–especially with Disney’s Dumbo just 2 weeks away. The initial overseas results were less than exciting, with $4.3M in 19 territories, suggesting that Wonder Park will likely find itself deep in red ink.
The very inexpensive FIVE FEET APART (CBS/Lionsgate) opened with $13.2M, and if it can get to $40M in the US and find some international interest (The Fault In Our Stars earned 59% of its worldwide total overseas), it has a path to possible success.
CAPTIVE STATE (Focus/Universal) found no constituency with a $3.2M opening, especially since the film, while moderately budgeted by sci-fi standards, was far from low-cost. It probably won’t even earn back its marketing spend.
APOLLO 11 (Neon) expanded to the low end of wide release at 588 theatres, but it didn’t show much promise with a $1.2M weekend that translated into a $2100 per-theatre weekend average. That’s less than half of the average for Five Feet Apart, even though Apart was in almost 5x as many theatres.
HOLDOVERS: None of the newcomers gave CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney) anything to worry about. It dropped 55% in its 2nd weekend to $69.3M. That’s not as good as the 45% Weekend 2 drop for Black Panther or Wonder Woman‘s 43%, but it’s on pace with Guardians of the Galaxy (55%) and Avengers: Infinity War (56%), and better than the 59-60% for Captain America: Civil War and Avengers: Age of Ultron. It should end up at $375-400M in the US, which would make it Marvel’s #7 or #8. Internationally, it’s at $494M after a $119.7M weekend in all major markets, and is on track to become Marvel’s 7th film to pass $1B worldwide.
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) dipped 36% in its 4th weekend to $9.3M, on its way to $160M in the US. Overseas, it’s at $330.9M after a $9.4M weekend in all major markets except India and Japan, so it will probably be a notch below Dragon 2 both domestically ($177M) and overseas ($444.5M).
MADEA FAMILY FUNERAL (Lionsgate) had a surprisingly smooth 3rd weekend by the standards of its franchise, down 35% to $8.1M. That suggests that it could get as high as $75M in the US, and if it tops the $73.2M for Boo! A Madea Halloween, it will be the #2 installment, behind only the $90.5M for Madea Goes To Jail. It has less than $1M from international release.
THE LEGO MOVIE 2: THE SECOND PART (Warners Animation) fell 45% to $2.1M in its 6th weekend, and while it’s passed $100M, it won’t get much higher, an ugly 60% below the first Lego Movie. Things are no better overseas, where it’s at $70.1M after a $2.1M in 65 markets, although it has one last chance of redemption with next week’s China opening.
ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL (20th) dropped 41% to $1.9M in its 5th weekend, and won’t get much past $85M in the US. 79% of its worldwide business has been earned overseas, where it’s at $312.2M after a $4M weekend in 62 territories, and around 40% of the international total is from China. Considering the reduced amounts that country allows studios to retain, it’s unlikely that Alita will break even.
GREEN BOOK (Participant/DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) lost 37% of its theatres as it headed to home release, and it dropped 49% to $1.3M, with $85M as its US target. It continues to do quite well overseas, where it’s at $192M after a $17.1M weekend in 67 markets, a remarkable $60.1M of that from China. That international success will push the Oscar winner from marginal profit to genuine hit.
LIMITED RELEASE: NO MANCHES FRIDA 2 (Pantelion/Lionsgate) opened well at 472 theatres with $3.9M, slightly better than the $3.7M for the original film (although that opened in around 75% of the sequel’s theatre count), and we’ll see whether it will expand wider and push past the original’s $11.5M US total. THE MUSTANG (Focus/Universal) had a solid start, averaging $19K in 4 NY/LA arthouses. THE AFTERMATH (Fox Searchlight) was less promising with an $11.5K average at 5. THE HUMMINGBIRD PROJECT (Orchard) is claiming a $9K average in its opening at 4, although that estimate relies on an extremely strong Sunday. ASH IS THE PUREST WHITE (Cohen) launched quietly with a $6500 average at 7. Among expansions, GLORIA BELL (A24) had a fair $10K average at 39. However, CLIMAX (A24) bombed with a $900 average at 217. THE WEDDING GUEST (IFC) had a wan $1200 average at 94. TRANSIT (Music Box) expanded to 42 with a $2700 average. BIRDS OF PASSAGE (Orchard) averaged just $800 at 97.
NEXT WEEKEND: Jordan Peele’s US (Blumhouse/Universal) will hope to ride its rave SXSW reviews as the week’s only wide opening. Limited releases include HOTEL MUMBAI (Bleecker Street) and SUNSET (Sony Classics).
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