OPENINGS: SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME (Columbia/Sony) owned the Independence Day holiday, with $93.6M over the 3-day weekend, and a $185.1M total since its Tuesday opening. Comparisons are inexact due to the 6-day holiday start, but it was considerably ahead of The Amazing Spider-Man, which also had a 6-day opening (with July 4th on Wednesday rather than Thursday) with $62M/$137M as its respective numbers. A similar trajectory would give Far From Home a $354M US total (about 6% ahead of Homecoming), and there’s plenty of potential upside, considering that Far From Home doesn’t face any big-budget action competition until Hobbes & Shaw on August 2. Things are similarly bright overseas, where Far From Home has been playing for 10 days in some markets (it’s now everywhere except Italy, where it opens this week), and has $395M after a $238M weekend. With $580M already in the worldwide bank, Far From Home has a good chance of passing Spider-Man 3‘s $890.9M to become the highest-grossing entry in the series, and even a chance to pass the $1B mark.
MIDSOMMAR (A24) provided unsteady counterprogramming, with $10.9M since its Wednesday opening and $6.6M over the 3-day weekend. Word of mouth is unlikely to be kind to this unusual, lengthy, not-quite-horror saga, and it may not get past $25M in the US, which would be down 43% from director Ari Aster’s Hereditary last year. The film wasn’t expensive to produce, but it did have a significant marketing spend by A24 standards. The studio sold off international rights, and overseas release hasn’t yet begun.
HOLDOVERS: Thanks to the holiday, most week-to-week declines were relatively soft. TOY STORY 4 (Pixar/Disney) lost 43% to $34.3M, and continues to be headed toward $400M in the US, which would make it Pixar’s #4 title, behind The Incredibles 2, Finding Dory and (by about $15M) Toy Story 3. Overseas, Toy 4 hasn’t yet opened in Japan or Germany, and is currently at $343.4M after a $43.1M weekend.
YESTERDAY (Universal) dipped 37% to $10.8M from last week’s opening, and might reach $60M in the US, a pleasing result for a film without a franchise or star power. However, things are quieter overseas, where it’s at $20.1M after a $7.9M weekend in 35 markets. There are some potentially big territories still to come, including Germany, China and Japan.
ANNABELLE COMES HOME (New Line/Warners) dropped 52% to $9.8M in its 2nd weekend, on its way to $70M in the US, which would be a low for the franchise (not counting the off-shoot Curse of La Llorona) but still enough for success. Overseas, it’s at $84.6M after a $20.4M weekend, with the UK and France among the markets still to open.
In its 7th weekend, ALADDIN (Disney) had the best hold in the Top 10, down just 25% to $7.9M and now on track for $340M in the US. It’s at $600.9M overseas after a $16.2M weekend, and might possibly have enough staying power to reach $1B worldwide, squeezing past The Jungle Book to become Disney’s #3 live-action remake behind Beauty & the Beast and Alice In Wonderland, although The Lion King may change that ranking before summer’s end.
THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2 (Illumination/Universal) dropped 35% to $4.8M in its 5th weekend, on its way to $150M in the US. Overseas, it’s at $121.7M after a $22.4M weekend in 54 markets (now including China). There are still some openings ahead, but Pets 2 won’t get near its predecessor’s totals of $368.4M in the US and $875.5M worldwide.
MEN IN BLACK: INTERNATIONAL (Tencent/Columbia/Sony) fell 46% to $3.6M in its 4th weekend, and might reach $80M in the US. It’s at $172.5M overseas after a $3.7M weekend in 65 territories, with no visible chance of hitting breakeven.
AVENGERS: ENDGAME (Marvel/Disney) continues to chase Avatar‘s worldwide $2.788B record. It’s currently $16M behind its goal. In the US, it dropped 49% to $3.1M and should pass $850M. Overseas, it’s at $1.925B.
ROCKETMAN (BRON/Paramount) continued to hold well in the US, down 30% to $2.8M in Weekend 6, and likely to hit $95M. It’s been slow overseas, with $84.7M after a $1.5M weekend. Its marginal success or failure will depend on the scale of its marketing costs.
LIMITED RELEASE: The documentary MARIANNE & LEONARD: WORDS OF LOVE (Roadside) opened with a mild $11.1M per-theatre weekend average at 4 arthouses. THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO (A24) expanded to 188 theatres and averaged $1800. WILD ROSE (Neon) widened to 63 with a $3300 average. MAIDEN (Sony Classics) averaged $6100 at 24.
NEXT WEEKEND: The studios aren’t putting any major product in the weekend between Far From Home and The Lion King. The wide openings are the action comedy STUBER (20th/Disney) and alligator thriller CRAWL (Paramount). Limited releases include THE FAREWELL (A24) and THE ART OF SELF-DEFENSE (Bleecker Street).
About the Author
