WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS June 14-16

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The 24th weekend of the year is looking like a very good $201 million for the top 12 films, well above the same weekend the last few years.  

Opening at over 4,200 theaters Friday (well into the top 10% of theater counts), Man of Steel from Warner Brothers should average $26,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $111 million opening).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  The early reviews are slightly positive at RottenTomatoes: 65% positive overall (although top critics are more mixed at 53% positive).  The prior attempt at Superman (remember Brandon Routh in 2006’s Superman Returns) actually had somewhat more positive reviews (76% positive overall and 74% positive with top critics), but we feel more fans will turn out for Zack Snyder’s take this time than Bryan Singer’s 2006 effort.  Man of Steel should be on track for $297 million domestic, well ahead of the $200.1 million for Superman Returns.

Opening at around 3,055 theaters today (a theater count somewhat above the 2,886 average the last two years), This Is the End from Sony should average an okay $7,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $23 million opening Friday-Sunday and $35 million five-day opening).  Early reviews are supportive: 81% positive overall and among top critics.  This Is the End should be on course for $95 million domestic.  

Expanding to around 600 theaters Friday, Before Midnight from Sony Classics should average a mediocre $4,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $2.9 million opening semi-wide opening).  Early reviews are fawning: 98% positive overall and a similar 97% among top critics.  The trilogy’s first film, 1995’s Before Sunrise (with a rare 100% positive score at RottenTomatoes), grossed $5.5 million domestic, while the second film, 2004’s Before Sunset (95% positive), grossed $5.8 million.  Before Midnight should break out to a relatively robust $9 million domestic.