Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 4.9.2023

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OPENINGS:  Box office expectations were high for THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE (Nintendo/Illumination/Universal), but the video game adaptation blew past them with a record-smashing $204.6M 5-day opening (passing the $200.1M for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen) that was huge in all quadrants.  Even though Friday was its 3rd day of release, the 3-day weekend $146.4M was the 2nd highest ever for an animated release, behind only The Incredibles 2 (which opened on a Friday) and its $182.7M.  International was similarly massive at $172.8M in 70 markets.  With no major competition on the schedule until Guardians of the Galaxy 3 a month from now, Super Mario seems to be headed for the $1B club.

On a much lower scale, AIR (Amazon) had a mildly successful launch as Amazon’s first wide self-produced and distributed release, with $20.2M since Wednesday and $14.5M over the 3-day weekend.  A $60M US total would look good in the context of other adult-aimed dramas during the pandemic era, but would still leave Air with a big hill to climb toward breakeven against $175M+ in production/marketing costs.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

PAINT (IFC) is the latest indie to attempt a wide release with low results, in this case $750K at 819 theaters, a $900 weekend per-theater average (less than 25% of the average for Air).  No international openings yet.

HOLDOVERS:  JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 4 (Lionsgate) dropped 49% to $14.6M in its 3rd weekend, and no longer seems likely to reach $200M in the US.  Nevertheless, it should beat Chapter 3‘s $171M by about 10%.  Overseas, Chapter 4 has $153.5M to date.

Despite the holiday weekend and spring break, DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES (eOne/Paramount) had an ugly 61% drop to $14.5M in its 2nd weekend, and probably won’t get much past $100M in the US.  Things would have to be much better overseas for it to get out from under red ink on $250M in costs, but they aren’t, with $61.8M so far.

SCREAM VI (Paramount) dipped 38% to $3.3M in its 5th weekend, becoming the highest-grossing entry in the franchise (not adjusted for inflation) and likely to reach $115M in the US.  The overseas result remains less exciting with $57.8M.

Easter crowds gave HIS ONLY SON (Angel) a 41% drop to $3.3M, with a chance to hit $20M in the US on low costs.  There hasn’t been a meaningful international release.

CREED III (MGM/Amazon) lost 44% to $2.8M in its 6th weekend, on its way past $160M in the US.  The international total is $116.2M.

SHAZAM: FURY OF THE GODS (DC/Warners) is almost done with its woeful run, down 65% to $1.6M and unlikely to even see $65M in the US.  There was no relief overseas, with $66.4M to date.

LIMITED RELEASE:  LA USURPADORA (Pantelion) opened at 313 theaters with a dim $450 weekend per-theater average.  HOW TO BLOW UP A PIPELINE (Neon) launched at 12 with a $10.1K average.  SHOWING UP (A24) averaged $16.7K at 4.

NEXT WEEKEND:  Horror movies RENFIELD (Universal) and THE POPE’S EXORCIST (Screen Gems/Sony) will counterprogram the wholesome Super Mario Bros, and Mafia Mamma (Bleecker Street) will try to find a comedy foothold.