OPENINGS: History seems to be repeating itself for filmmaker Kelly Fremon Craig, whose extremely well-reviewed ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME, MARGARET (Lionsgate) opened with a soft $6.8M (and that studio estimate assumes an unusually strong Sunday). That’s very similar to Craig’s also critically-praised 2016 The Edge of Seventeen, which had a $4.9M opening at 40% fewer theaters. Margaret may not hit $20M in the US (Seventeen ended its run with $14.4M), on $50M+ in production/marketing costs. Demographic polls of Margaret‘s weekend audience showed that ticketbuyers were predominantly older women who’d grown up with the novel, rather than attracting contemporary teens and tweens.
The Indian-language PONNIYIN SELVAN: PART TWO (Red Giant) hit the mark with its target audience, earning $3.8M in just 600 theaters.
SISU (Lionsgate) had a $3M start in 1006 theaters, unable to get beyond the genre fans attracted by its ultra-violence.
BIG GEORGE FOREMAN [etc] (Affirm/Sony) was an attempt to broaden the audience for Christian-themed movies via a celebrity biography, but it fell flat with $3M at over 3000 theaters.
Indie distributors continue to struggle with wide releases that once would have been platformed over time, the latest being POLITE SOCIETY (Focus/Universal), with a sad $800K at 927 theaters, a weekend per-theater average under $900.
HOLDOVERS: In its last weekend before facing actual competition, THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE (Illumination/Universal) had another great hold, down 33% to $40M in its 4th weekend. Depending on how hard it’s hit by Guardians 3 next week, it could be on track for $600M+ in the US, with the $634.6M animation record held by The Incredibles 2 not outside the realm of possibility. Super Mario is even more huge overseas, where it has $532.5M after a $68.3M weekend in all major territories, including a $14.3M premiere in Japan, propelling it to $1B worldwide with plenty of runway left.
By horror genre standards, EVIL DEAD RISE (Warners) held rather well, down 50% to $12.2M, on its way to $75M+. It has a slower $17.9M overseas.
JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 4 (Lionsgate) slipped just 14% to $5M in its 6th weekend, now the highest-grossing of the franchise and aiming at $190M in the US. The overseas total to date is $226M.
DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES (Paramount) is still hoping to reach $100M in the US after a 26% drop to $4.1M in its 5th weekend, although even that wouldn’t be enough for profitability on $250M in costs. It has $106M overseas.
AIR (Amazon) lost 27% to $4M in its 4th weekend, with a chance of hitting $60M in the US. The project has had less appeal overseas with $27.1M to date, leaving red ink on $150M or so in costs.
THE COVENANT (MGM/Amazon) dropped 43% to $3.6M, on its way to a light $25M in the US. It’s thus far had a negligible international release.
THE POPE’S EXORCIST (Screen Gems/Sony) was down 49% to $1.8M in its 3rd weekend, and probably won’t reach $25M in the US. The international number is better at $37.1M.
Despite jumping its theater count by 120% to 2125, BEAU IS AFRAID (A24) fell 46% to $1.4M (put another way: its weekend per-theater average plummeted by more than 75%). A24 has little if any room to expand further, which means that next week’s drop may be ugly. Beau has little chance of getting much past $10M in the US (it’s barely opened overseas), and its advocates have wisely switched to a “money isn’t everything” take.
RENFIELD (Universal) tumbled 61% to $1.3M in its 3rd weekend, and can only hope to see $20M in the US. The overseas total is even worse at $6.1M.
LIMITED RELEASE: In the “rich get richer” department, RETURN OF THE JEDI (Lucasfilm/Disney) had a 40th anniversary re-release at 475 theaters, and took in $4.7M, a better per-theater average than Super Mario Bros. SHOWING UP (A24) expanded to 115 and averaged $700. JOYLAND (Oscilloscope) widened to 30 with an $1100 average. OTHER PEOPLE’S CHILDREN (Music Box) spread to 7 with a $2100 average. CARMEN (Sony Classics) averaged $900 at 11.
NEXT WEEKEND: As noted, the summer movie season kicks off with GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 (Marvel/Disney). Counterprogramming comes from the rom-com LOVE AGAIN (Screen Gems/Sony).
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