OPENINGS: INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY (Paramount/Lucasfilm/Disney) barely scraped the bottom of weekend expectations with $60M, and that studio estimate assumes an very strong Sunday. The extremely expensive tentpole–$400M+ in production and worldwide marketing costs–combined an elderly franchise built around an 80-year old star with mediocre reviews following an ill-advised Cannes premiere, to underwhelming results. Although Dial will benefit from the holiday week and next weekend’s low-budget offerings, immediately after that it faces a one-two punch of direct competition, with Mission: Impossible 7 starting to screen on July 10, and Oppenheimer the week after that. The international results were similarly unexciting, at $70M in 52 territories.
Even though RUBY GILLMAN: TEENAGE KRAKEN (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) was moderately-budgeted by the standards of big-studio animation, it won’t begin to recoup its $150M in production/marketing costs with its $5.2M opening. The overseas result wasn’t much better with $7.6M in 67 markets, and Ruby Gillman may not even earn back its publicity expenses.
PAST LIVES (A24) expanded into wide release at 906 theaters with a quiet $1.5M weekend. That wasn’t in a league with the $6.1M for Everything Everywhere All At Once at 1250, and it’s even behind the $2.7M for Beau Is Afraid at 965. It doesn’t seem as though Past Lives, despite spectacular reviews, will be the box office unicorn indie studios and fans have been longing for.
HOLDOVERS: SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (Marvel/Sony Animation) continued to be the one truly bright spot of the summer movie box office, down 40% to $11.5M in its 5th weekend, and on target to pass Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 to become the #1 summer release in the US to date with as much as $375M. However, it’s softer overseas with $267.4M after a $13.8M weekend in 63 territories.
ELEMENTAL (Pixar/Disney) is holding well, down 39% to $11.3M in its 3rd weekend, but not enough to recover from its slow start. At this point it may reach $125M in the US, and the overseas total is $98M after a $29.8M weekend in 40 markets. If it lands at $300M worldwide, that would still be a loss on $300M+ in production/marketing costs.
NO HARD FEELINGS (Columbia/Sony) dropped a sharp 50% from last week’s premiere to $7.5M, and a $50M US total won’t take it where it would need for profit on $100M or so in total costs. The international results are similar, with $20M after a $6.5M weekend in 40 territories.
TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS (Hasbro/Paramount) lost 40% to $7M, on its way to $155M in the US, a bit better than the $130.2M for The Last Knight. However, while overseas is stronger with $245.2M after a $14.8M weekend in 65 markets, that’s nowhere near Last Knight‘s $475.3M.
THE LITTLE MERMAID (Disney) dipped 40% to $5.2M in its 6th weekend, and will have to stretch to hit $300M in the US. That would be $55.6M less than 2019’s Aladdin, and the difference is much wider internationally, where Mermaid has $242.8M after a $7.2M weekend in 52 territories, and Aladdin totaled at $698.7M.
THE FLASH (DC/Warners) kept plunging, down 67% to $5M in its 3rd weekend, and unlikely to pass $115M in the US. That would put it under The Green Lantern‘s $116.1M flop in 2011. There was no rescue overseas, where Flash has $146.1M after an $11.4M weekend in 78 markets.
Word of mouth wasn’t kind to Wes Anderson’s ASTEROID CITY (Focus/Universal), which fell 58% to $3.8M in its 2nd weekend of wide release, despite increasing its theater count by 13%. A $30M US total would almost double the $16.1M for The French Dispatch, but barely exceed half of The Grand Budapest Hotel‘s $59.3M. International is at $29.5M after a $11.4M weekend in 38 territories, and similarly it should beat Dispatch‘s $30.2M but fall below Budapest‘s $113.8M.
For now, GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 (Marvel/Disney) is still the summer movie to beat, likely to reach $360M after dropping 48% to $1.8M in its 9th weekend. The international total is $480.1M.
THE BOOGEYMAN (20th/Disney) was down 34% to $1.7M in its 5th weekend, and should pass $45M in the US. It has $20.8M overseas.
THE BLACKENING (Lionsgate) lost more than half its theaters, and dropped 55% to $1.4M in its 3rd weekend, possibly able to hit $20M in the US. It hasn’t yet opened overseas.
LIMITED RELEASE: The documentary EVERY BODY (Focus/Universal) opened with a slow $600 weekend per-theater average at 255.
NEXT WEEKEND: As noted, with Mission: Impossible 7 just around the corner, the major releases are staying away, with JOY RIDE (Lionsgate) and INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR (Screen Gems/Sony) as the only wide openings.
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