OPENINGS: Christmas Day is one of the highest-grossing days of the year, and it will give a major bump to everything in the market. Even with that boost, AQUAMAN & THE LOST KINGDOM (DC/Warners) was only able to muster a $40M 4-day weekend studio estimate after $28.1M in 3 days (and given the 34% Friday-to-Saturday drop, that may be optimistic). Even if it hits that number, it would be far below the $67.9M 3-day opening for the first Aquaman (which hit $83.4M in 4 days that didn’t include Christmas). The 4-day Lost Kingdom number is also below the 3-day openings for The Flash ($55M), Black Adam ($67M), and The Marvels ($46.1M). Although Lost Kingdom fared better internationally with $80.1M in 73 territories, that isn’t as good as it looks, since $30.4M of it is from China, where the first Aquaman opened at $93M. The holiday week ahead, where every day through New Year’s performs like a weekend day, will help Lost Kingdom recoup its $300M+ in production/marketing costs, but it may struggle to earn half of Aquaman‘s $1.15B worldwide total.
MIGRATION (Illumination/Universal) had a slow start with $12.3M ($17.1M including Monday). That compares to $30.9M for the 4-day opening of Sing 2. That film legged it out through the holidays and beyond to 5x its launch, and Migration will hope to do the same. Migration had already opened in several overseas markets, and its lackluster total is $22M after a $7.9M weekend in 43 territories.
For reasons difficult to understand, ANYONE BUT YOU (Columbia/Sony) is assuming a gigantic Christmas Day bump, but even if that occurs in real life, it would only be at $8.8M for the 4-day weekend (after $6.2M in 3 days). While Anyone has a relatively modest budget, it may be challenged to match the $50.5M US total of the studio’s recent R-rated comedy No Hard Feelings, and that’s with a full holiday stretch. It hasn’t yet opened overseas.
The Indian-language SALAAR (Prathyangira) had a solid start with $5.5M in just 802 theaters ($6.3M with Monday), although it was extremely front-loaded with a 73% Friday-to-Saturday drop. The international total is reportedly $37M.
THE IRON CLAW (A24) opened with a mild $5.1M, and is also hoping for a huge Christmas Day bump that would bring the 4-day total to $7.5M. A24 is as good as any studio at building word-of-mouth and awards buzz, and the plan is doubtless to hold through January (at least). It’s US-only for now.
POOR THINGS (Searchlight/Disney) expanded to the low end of wide release at 800 theaters with $2.1M for the 3-day weekend and $3M projected with Monday. By comparison, The Holdovers earned $3.2M in its first 3-day weekend at 778 theaters.
HOLDOVERS: WONKA (Warners) lost 55% from last week’s start to $17.7M, with $26.1M projected for the 4-day weekend. It should have the family audience in its pocket throughout the holidays, since Migration didn’t make much impression. The overseas total is $171.3M after a $33.2M weekend in 77 markets.
THE BOY AND THE HERON (GKids) was pushed by new arrivals from about 1/3 of its theaters, and dropped 43% to $3.2M in its 3rd weekend ($3.9M with Monday). Depending on whether it loses more theaters on Monday, it could get past $40M in the US, with $89.8M overseas.
THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS & SNAKES (Lionsgate) shed 46% to $3.2M in its 6th weekend ($4.3M with Christmas Day), and could reach $165M in the US. It has $162M overseas after a $3.9M weekend in 84 territories.
GODZILLA MINUS ONE (Toho) was without around 25% of its theaters, and down 46% to $2.7M for the 3-day weekend ($3.2M with Monday), on its way past $45M in the US, and with $33.8M overseas.
TROLLS BAND TOGETHER (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) also lost a chunk of theaters, and fell 52% to $1.9M in its 6th weekend ($2.7M with Christmas). It should get beyond $100M in the US before the holidays are over. The international total is $98M after a $2.3M weekend in 74 territories.
WISH (Disney) saw almost half its theaters depart, and plunged 64% to $1.1M ($1.7M with Monday). Even with the holidays, its US total may not pass $65M. Things are a bit brighter overseas, with $86.8M after a $9.6M weekend in 41 markets.
LIMITED RELEASE: ALL OF US STRANGERS (Searchlight/Disney) debuted with an OK $33K per-theater average over 3 days at 4 theaters ($42K average with Monday), comparable to the $35.2K average for The Holdovers when it opened at 6. FREUD’S LAST SESSION (Sony Classics) was wan with a $9100 average at 5 over 3 days. MEMORY (Ketchup) had a $18.3K 3-day average at 2. AMERICAN FICTION (Orion/MGM/Amazon) expanded to 40 with a $10.5K 3-day average ($13.9K over 4 days). THE ZONE OF INTEREST (A24) averaged $15K at 6 over 3 days and $23.4K over 4. ANSELM (Janus) widened to 8 with a $2400 3-day average.
CHRISTMAS DAY: THE COLOR PURPLE (Warners), FERRARI (Neon) and THE BOYS IN THE BOAT (MGM/Amazon) join the year-end holiday parade.
About the Author
