Preliminary box office numbers at Deadline have THE HEAT (20th) overperforming with a $15M Friday, which could give it a $40M opening weekend, almost as much as the movie cost to produce. That means the first 3 days for the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy pairing may nearly match the first 4 days of The Hangover Part III ($41.7M), and it will likely more than double what Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson mustered with The Internship, which started with a measly $17.3M.
The news went the other way for WHITE HOUSE DOWN (Sony), which has a dour $10.5M for Friday, probably meaning a weekend at $27M or so. For a movie that cost $150M (meaning $300M with worldwide marketing), this is disastrous–not even international overperformance is likely to pull it out of red ink, and coming on the heels of After Earth, it gives Sony one of the worst summers in recent studio memory.
Neither of the newcomers will be #1 for the weekend, however. That crown will remain with MONSTERS UNIVERSITY (Disney/Pixar), which fell 50% from last Friday to $15.2M. That should give it a $45-50M weekend, a better hold than Brave had last year (and much better than Cars 2 2 years ago).
WORLD WAR Z (Paramount) took a bigger hit, down 63% from last Friday to $9.3M, with about a $30M weekend in store. It now seems unlikely to hit $200M in the US, and considering its gigantic cost, it’s going to need major success overseas to break even.
Thinking of gigantic cost, MAN OF STEEL (Warners) fell another 50% from last Friday, for a $20M weekend. It’s likely to come up short of $300M in the US, and while it’s in better position to see a little profit in the end, it’s going to need a lot of international Superman fans to justify spending the same amount on a sequel.
THIS IS THE END (Sony) continued to hold very well on its own modest terms, down just 35% from last Friday. That’s even more true of NOW YOU SEE ME (Summit/Lionsgate), which slipped just 25% from last Friday and will top $100M this weekend.
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