OPENINGS: The $114M launch of WICKED (Universal) (which included “fan event” screenings throughout the previous week) set a new high for Broadway musical adaptations, and indeed for live-action musicals in general, while still being slightly behind sky-high expectations. For those doing the 2023 vs 2024 comparison, it was also about 30% under the opening of Barbie. The Wicked source material is far less well-known overseas, where the film started with $50.2M in 61 markets. Although a fair amount of family competition will be coming its way, starting with next week’s Moana 2, Wicked should hold a substantial audience through the holidays, and with a relatively reasonable $150M production cost (albeit supported by marketing reportedly at $150M as well), Wicked should find profit and set the stage for Wicked 2 a year from now.
While Wicked will earn the lion’s share of its revenue in the US, the reverse is true of GLADIATOR 2 (Paramount), which had a moderate $55.5M domestic start, 33% below Oppenheimer. It’s far stronger overseas, where it has $165.5M after a $50.5M weekend in 67 territories. Gladiator 2 will need every penny of that, as production/marketing costs were reportedly in the neighborhood of $400M, meaning that even worldwide box office at $500M+ may not put it into profit.
Far from the box office fireworks of its fellow newcomers, BONHOEFFER: PASTOR. SPY. ASSASSIN (Angel) opened with $5.1M. That number was enormously frontloaded, with a 48% Friday-to-Saturday drop (the Christian studio is estimating a much smaller Sunday decline). By comparison, despite all its pre-Thursday screenings, Wicked only had a 23% Saturday drop. Bonhoeffer hasn’t opened overseas.
HOLDOVERS: RED ONE (MGM/Amazon) lost all its premium screens to the new blockbusters, and fell 59% to $13.3M. Even with a Thanksgiving boost, it may not reach $100M in the US. The international total is $64.2M.
VENOM: THE LAST DANCE (Marvel/Columbia/Sony) dropped 45% to $4M in its 5th weekend, and seems likely to end up south of $150M in the US. It has a more robust $322.6M overseas.
THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGEANT EVER (Lionsgate) dipped 33% to $3.5M in its 3rd weekend, on its way to $35M in the US. It’s had negligible international release thus far.
HERETIC (A24) lost half its theaters and cratered by 55% to $2.2M in its 3rd weekend, perhaps able to reach $30M in the US. The overseas total is $7.1M.
THE WILD ROBOT (DreamWorks Animation/Universal, also on VOD) lost 53% to $2M in its 9th weekend, and may have to stretch to see $150M in the US. It also has $176.7M internationally.
SMILE 2 (Paramount, also on VOD) lost 60% of its theaters and fell 62% to $1.1M in its 6th weekend, en route to $70M in the US. It has a very similar $68.1M overseas.
A REAL PAIN (Touchstone/Disney) took a 50% hit to $1.1M in its 2nd wide weekend, and will likely need some awards attention to achieve $10M in the US. It has $700K in early international release.
Without almost 60% of last week’s theater count, CONCLAVE (Focus/Universal) plunged 61% to $1.1M in its 5th weekend. Nevertheless, it should pass $30M in the US, a healthy result for an adult drama. The international total is $2.3M to date.
LIMITED RELEASE: ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT (Sideshow) expanded to 19 theaters with a $3400 weekend average. FLOW (Janus) averaged $25.4K at 2.
NEXT WEEKEND: The addition of MOANA 2 (Disney) to the Wicked/Gladiator 2 brew is anticipated to bring the US box office to potentially historic Thanksgiving levels. Limited releases include awards hopefuls QUEER (A24) and THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG (Neon).
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