The 28th weekend of the year is looking like a very good $209 million for the top 12 films, up 15% from the comparable weekend the last few years.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (somewhat above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends), Grown Ups 2 from Sony should average $15,300 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $45.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are non-existent — another Adam Sandler comedy shielded from those mean critics. Grown Ups 2 should be on track for $135 million domestic, down from the $162.0 million domestic gross for Grown Ups in June 2010.
Opening at around 3,300 theaters Friday, Pacific Rim from Warner Brothers should average $11,900 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $39 million opening weekend). The film is averaging a good 76% positive at RottenTomatoes so far, but the film has felt like a turkey from day one. Pacific Rim should be on course for maybe $110 million domestic. Although international should be much stronger for this film than last week’s Lone Ranger, Pacific Rim is nonetheless headed for massive red ink.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 12-14, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Grown Ups 2 | Sony | PG13 | n/a | 45.5 | 135 | |
| Pacific Rim | WB | PG13 | 76% | 39.0 | 110 | |
Despicable Me 2 will definitely be the top holdover by far and probably will remain the #1 film overall in its second weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS July 12-14, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Despicable Me 2 | Uni | -44% | 46.5 | 295 | |
| The Heat | Fox | -38% | 15.5 | 154 | |
| The Lone Ranger | Dis | -53% | 13.8 | 93 | |
| Monsters University | Dis | -37% | 12.3 | 295 | |
| World War Z | Par | -42% | 10.5 | 210 | |
| White House Down | Sony | -46% | 7.4 | 84 | |
| Man of Steel | WB | -46% | 6.2 | 301 | |
| Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain | Summit | -49% | 5.2 | 36 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $182 million total, ranking 2nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $154 million (while 2011 was $252 million and 2010 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $209 million, up 15% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 36% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.13.2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift FOX PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $61 Actual: $47
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $140 Actual: $161
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $714
7.15.2011
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB PG13 Daniel Radcliffe Emma Watson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $151 Actual: $169
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $377 Actual: $381
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $947
Winnie the Pooh DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $37 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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