The 44th weekend of the year is looking like $114 million for the top 12 films, better than last weekend but 4-8% below comparable weekends the past few years.
Opening at over 3,350 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Ender’s Game from Lionsgate/Summit should average $8,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $28.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are positive at RottenTomatoes: 69% positive so far. Ender’s Game is on track for $82 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, Free Birds from Relativity should average $5,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.5 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews are not promising: 29% positive with a small sample size. Free Birds should be headed for $59 million domestic.
Opening at around 3,500 theaters Friday, Last Vegas from CBS Films should average a below par $4,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $14.5 million opening three-day weekend). Critical sentiment is divided: 47% positive at RottenTomatoes. Last Vegas should be headed for $45 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND November 1-3, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Ender’s Game | LG/Sum | PG13 | 69% | 28.5 | 82 | |
| Free Birds | Rel | PG | 29% | 16.5 | 59 | |
| Last Vegas | CBS | PG13 | 47% | 14.5 | 45 | |
Slipping to #2 overall, Gravity will remain the top holdover with another sub-30% weekend decline.
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RETURNING FILMS November 1-3, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa | Par | -53% | 15.2 | 85 | |
| Gravity | WB | -38% | 12.5 | 258 | |
| Captain Phillips | Sony | -27% | 8.5 | 102 | |
| 12 Years a Slave | Fox S | +96% | 4.2 | n/a | |
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | Sony | -46% | 3.4 | 116 | |
| The Counselor | Fox | -58% | 3.3 | 17 | |
| Carrie | Sony | -55% | 2.7 | 36 | |
| Escape Plan | LG/Sum | -56% | 2.0 | 27 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $119 million total, ranking 30th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $125 million (while 2011 was $104 million and 2010 was $143 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like an okay $114 million, down 4% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 8% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.2.2012
Wreck-It Ralph DIS PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $49
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $179 Actual: $189
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $282
Flight PAR R Denzel Washington John Goodman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $87 Actual: $94
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $68
Man with the Iron Fists UNI R Russell Crowe Lucy Liu
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
11.4.2011
Tower Heist UNI PG13 Ben Stiller Eddie Murphy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $78
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75
A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas WB R Kal Penn John Cho
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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