Weekend #5 of 2014 is looking like $74 million for the top 12 films, a significant 17% below the average for this challenging weekend the past few years. Super Bowl weekend is always a tough one, with the distraction of the largest TV event of the year on Sunday and weak movies released in its wake. The last two years, this weekend has produced Warm Bodies, Bullet to the Head, Woman in Black, Chronicle and Big Miracle. This weekend feels exactly on track with that assortment of films.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), That Awkward Moment from Universal should average a sub-par $4,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $12.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are weak: 22% positive so far. That Awkward Moment is on track for around $32 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, Labor Day from Paramount should average a very weak $2,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $5.5 million opening weekend). Early reviews are middling: 55% positive so far. Labor Day is on track for around $13 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Jan 31-Feb 2, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| That Awkward Moment | Uni | R | 22% | 12.5 | 32 | |
| Labor Day | Par | PG13 | 55% | 5.5 | 13 | |
Ride Along will remain the #1 holdover, and the only one above $10 million for the weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS Jan 31-Feb 2, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Ride Along | Uni | -46% | 11.5 | 125 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -7% | 8.5 | 370 | |
| The Nut Job | OpenR | -37% | 7.6 | 70 | |
| Lone Survivor | Uni | -47% | 6.9 | 132 | |
| Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit | Par | -48% | 4.7 | 53 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | -34% | 4.7 | 152 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | -36% | 3.5 | 115 | |
| August: Osage County | Weins | -36% | 3.2 | 42 | |
| I, Frankenstein | LG/Sum | -66% | 2.9 | 14 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $89 million total, ranking 45th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $69 million (while 2012 was $94 million, 2011 was $73 million and 2010 was $100 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $74 million, 17% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but 7% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
2.1.2013
Warm Bodies LG/Sum PG13 Nicholas Hoult Teresa Palmer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $66
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $51
Bullet to the Head WB R Sylvester Stallone
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $13 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
2.3.2012
Woman in Black CBS PG13 Daniel Radcliffe Ciaran Hinds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $73
Chronicle FOX PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $73 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $62
Big Miracle UNI PG John Krasinski Drew Barrymore
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $20
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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