Weekend #6 of 2014 is looking like a tepid $114 million for the top 12 films, a 30% increase over last year’s disaster for the comparable weekend (Identity Thief and Side Effects bowed this time last year). But $114 is over 30% below the average for this weekend over the last four years. For example, this weekend in 2012 produced The Vow, Safe House and Journey 2 (each opening to $27 to $41 million). One film should strike it rich this weekend, but the other two are soft to mediocre, and the holdovers are starting to really lose steam.
Opening at around 3,650 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Lego Movie from Warner Brothers should average a very good $13,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $48.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are universally supportive: 100% positive so far. The Lego Movie is on track for around $175 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, The Monuments Men from Sony should average a slightly above average $6,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $19.0 million opening weekend). Early reviews are not so hot: only 41% positive so far. The Monuments Men is on track for around $55 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, Vampire Academy from The Weinstein Company should average a soft $3,600 per theater for the weekend (for an $8.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet — never a sign of confidence. Vampire Academy is on track for around $15 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND February 7-9, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Lego Movie | WB | PG | 100% | 48.5 | 175 | |
| The Monuments Men | Sony | PG13 | 41% | 19.0 | 55 | |
| Vampire Academy | Weins | PG13 | N/A | 8.5 | 15 | |
Ride Along is still the top holdover, but with all returning films now headed for weekends below $10 million, the box office does not have much in the way of bench strength..
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RETURNING FILMS February 7-9, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Ride Along | Uni | -38% | 7.5 | 119 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -37% | 5.7 | 370 | |
| Lone Survivor | Uni | -35% | 4.6 | 125 | |
| That Awkward Moment | Uni | -51% | 4.3 | 22 | |
| The Nut Job | OpenR | -50% | 3.7 | 64 | |
| Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit | Par | -36% | 3.4 | 52 | |
| Labor Day | Par | -42% | 3.0 | 9 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $166 million total, ranking 9th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $86 million (while 2012 was $173 million, 2011 was $135 million and 2010 was $189 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $114 million, 31% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but 32% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
2.8.2013
Identity Thief Uni R Jason Bateman Melissa McCarthy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $35
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $129 Actual: $134
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $39
Side Effects Open Road R Jude Law Rooney Mara
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
2.10.2012
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB PG The Rock Michael Caine
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $101 Actual: $104
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $222
Safe House UNI R Denzel Washington Ryan Reynolds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $40
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $138 Actual: $126
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $76
The Vow SONY PG13 Rachel McAdams Channing Tatum
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $32 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $144 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $69
Star Wars: Episode 1 The Phantom Menace (in 3D) FOX PG Liam Neeson Ewan McGregor
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $50 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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