Weekend #9 of 2014 is looking like an lame $102 million for the top 12 films, 33% behind the average for this weekend the past several years. With The Lego Movie returning to Earth and neither of the new movies this weekend looking like runaway hits, the box office is definitely cooling off.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Non-Stop from Universal should average a decent $9,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $27.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre: 47% positive. Non-Stop is on track for around $80 million domestic.
Opening at a similar 3,000 theaters Friday, Son of God from Fox should average a somewhat above average $6,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $19.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet for this film. Critical response shall be revealed after the opening. Son of God is on track for around $55 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Feb 28-Mar 2, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Non-Stop | Uni | PG13 | 47% | 27.5 | 80 | |
| Son of God | Fox | PG13 | N/A | 19.5 | 55 | |
Among the holdovers, The Lego Movie remains the top attraction by far.
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RETURNING FILMS Feb 28-Mar 2, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Lego Movie | WB | -32% | 21.4 | 280 | |
| 3 Days to Kill | Rel | -51% | 6.0 | 33 | |
| RoboCop | Sony | -51% | 4.8 | 64 | |
| The Monuments Men | Sony | -44% | 4.4 | 82 | |
| Pompeii | Sony | -59% | 4.3 | 27 | |
| About Last Night | Sony | -45% | 4.2 | 54 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -61% | 3.2 | 395 | |
| Ride Along | Uni | -42% | 2.7 | 138 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $153 million total, ranking 12th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $93 million (while 2012 was $152 million, 2011 was $121 million and 2010 was $186 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $102 million, -33% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but +10% above the same weekend last year (which was even softer).
This Weekend Last Two Years
3.1.2013
Jack the Giant Slayer WB PG13 Nicholas Hoult Stanley Tucci
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $64 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $133
21 and Over Rel R Miles Teller
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
The Last Exorcism Part II CBS R Ashley Bell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Phantom RCR R Ed Harris David Duchovny
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $0
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $-2 Actual: $1
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
3.2.2012
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax UNI PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $44 Actual: $70
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $212 Actual: $214
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $97
Project X WB R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $65 Actual: $55
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $46
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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