Weekend #19 of 2014 is looking like a weak $112 million for the top 12 films, 20% below the typical volume for this weekend the past few years ($141 million).
Opening at over 3,200 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Neighbors from Universal should average $11,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $37.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are strong: 88% positive so far. Neighbors is on track for around $125 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $85 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $210 million.
Opening at 2,641 theaters Friday, Legends of Oz: Dorothy Returns from Clarius Entertainment should average under $2,000 per theater for the weekend (for an $4.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Legend of Oz is on track for around $7 million domestic, with virtually no prospects overseas.
Opening at around 1,000 theaters Friday, Moms’ Night Out from Sony should average $3,700 per theater for the weekend (for an $3.7 million opening weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are soft: 43% positive so far. Moms’ Night Out is on track for around $9 million domestic, again with little to no overseas potential.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 9-11, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Neighbors | Uni | R | 88% | 37.0 | 125 | |
| Legends of Oz: Dorothy | Clar | PG | n/a | 4.5 | 7 | |
| Moms’ Night Out | Sony | PG | 43% | 3.7 | 9 | |
Among the holdovers, Amazing Spider-Man 2 is now the only real player, although it will be decaying at a severe rate.
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RETURNING FILMS May 9-11, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | Sony | -59% | 37.3 | 246 | |
| The Other Woman | Fox | -40% | 8.7 | 81 | |
| Heaven Is for Real | Sony | -31% | 5.9 | 89 | |
| Rio 2 | Fox | -35% | 5.0 | 125 | |
| Captain America: The Winter Soldier | Dis | -38% | 4.8 | 257 | |
| Brick Mansions | Rel | -48% | 1.9 | 20 | |
| Divergent | WB | -56% | 1.4 | 150 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $141 million total, ranking 19th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $152 million (while 2012 was $162 million, 2011 was $129 million and 2010 was $131 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $112 million, 20% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 26% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
5.10.2013
Great Gatsby WB PG13 Leonardo DiCaprio Tobey Maguire
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $37 Actual: $50
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $146 Actual: $145
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $206
5.10.2013
Peeples LG/Sum PG13 Craig Robinson Kerry Washington
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
5.11.2012
Dark Shadows WB PG13 Johnny Depp Michelle Pfeiffer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $159
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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