Weekend #21 of 2014 is looking like a very good $205 million for the top 12 films over the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the Memorial Day weekend, 21% above the norm for this weekend (although -18% from the same weekend last year, which was fueled by sequels that opened big but couldn’t sustain). Reminder: on holiday weekends, we still focus on the three-day numbers because they are comparable to other weekends and other times of the year.
Opening at over 3,900 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), X-Men: Days of Future Past from 20th Century Fox should average $24,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $96.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, the film should total $120 million. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are strong: 95% positive so far. X-Men: Days of Future Past is on track for around $285 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $550 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $835 million. This would be much better than The Wolverine ($414.8 million worldwide) but far from the penthouse of The Avengers ($1.519 billion worldwide).
Opening at over 3,500 theaters Friday, Blended from Warner Brothers should average a mediocre $6,000 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $21.0 million opening weekend). Through Monday, the romantic comedy should total about $25.5 million over four days. Critical sentiment is non-existent at this point: no reviews yet. Blended is on track for around $65 million domestic, with a potential for around another $65 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $130 million. This would be much better than the recent low for Adam Sandler ($57.7 million worldwide for That’s My Boy), fairly close to Jack & Jill ($149.7 million worldwide), but well below Just Go With It ($214.9 million worldwide) and Grown Ups ($271.4 million worldwide) and Grown Ups 2 ($246.9 million worldwide).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 23-25, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| X-Men: Days of Future Past | Fox | PG13 | 95% | 96.5 | 285 | |
| Blended | WB | PG | n/a | 21.0 | 65 | |
Among the holdovers, Godzilla is the clear king, while Neighbors has one more weekend of respectable business.
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RETURNING FILMS May 23-25, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Godzilla | WB | -57% | 40.5 | 270 | |
| Neighbors | Uni | -68% | 15.7 | 155 | |
| The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | Sony | -75% | 9.0 | 205 | |
| Million Dollar Arm | Dis | -37% | 6.6 | 34 | |
| The Other Woman | Fox | -58% | 4.0 | 86 | |
| Heaven Is for Real | Sony | -61% | 2.9 | 94 | |
| Rio 2 | Fox | -49% | 2.5 | 127 | |
| Captain America: The Winter Soldier | Dis | -61% | 2.2 | 259 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $169 million total, ranking 8th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was an extraordinary $249 million (while 2012 was $146 million, 2011 was $216 million and 2010 was $145 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $205 million, 21% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but 18% below the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
5.24.2013
Fast & Furious 6 Uni PG13 Vin Diesel Jordana Brewster
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $81 Actual: $97
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $257 Actual: $239
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $550
The Hangover Part III WB R Bradley Cooper Ed Helms
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $54 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $127 Actual: $112
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $250
Epic Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $107
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $161
5.25.2012
Men in Black 3 SONY PG13 Will Smith Josh Brolin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $59 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $189 Actual: $179
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $445
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FOX NR Tom Wilkinson Judi Dench
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $0 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $46
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $88
Chernobyl Diaries WB R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $19
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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