Weekend #33 of 2014 is looking like $140 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 20%from the norm for this weekend and the third up weekend in a row after six straight down weekends.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Expendables 3 from Lionsgate/Summit should average $8,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $25.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a wobbly 31% positive so far. The Expendables 3 is on track for around $70 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $240 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $310 million. This would be near the $305.4 million worldwide for The Expendables 2 (released 8.17.2012 with $85.0 million domestic total and $220.4 million overseas) and above the $274.5 million worldwide for The Expendables (released 8.13.2010 with $103.1 million domestic and $171.4 million overseas).
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Wednesday, Let’s Be Cops from 20th Century Fox should average $6,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $20.0 million opening weekend). Including Wednesday and Thursday grosses, the film should total about $28 million through Sunday. Early critical sentiment is weak, with only 21% positive reviews so far. The film is on track for around $75 million domestic, with a potential for another $20 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $95 million.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, The Giver from Weinstein should average $4,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is a middling 53% positive so far. The film is on track for around $40 million domestic, with a potential for another $70 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $110 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 15-17, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Expendables 3 | LG/Sum | PG13 | 31% | 25.0 | 70 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | R | 21% | 20.0 | 75 | |
| The Giver | Weins | PG13 | 53% | 13.5 | 40 | |
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy are the main holdovers, doing very respectable business.
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RETURNING FILMS August 15-17, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | -58% | 27.3 | 180 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | -45% | 23.2 | 285 | |
| Into the Storm | WB | -54% | 7.9 | 45 | |
| The Hundred-Foot Journey | Dis | -39% | 6.7 | 38 | |
| Lucy | Uni | -46% | 5.1 | 122 | |
| Step Up All In | LG/Sum | -52% | 3.1 | 19 | |
| Hercules | Par | -52% | 2.8 | 76 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $116 million total, ranking 32nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2012 was $127 million, 2011 was $106 million and 2010 was $110 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very decent $140 million, up 20% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 15% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.16.2013
Lee Daniels’ The Butler Weins PG13 Forest Whitaker Oprah Winfrey
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $98 Actual: $117
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $60
Kick-Ass 2 Uni R Aaron Johnson Chloe Moretz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $30 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $32
Jobs Open Road PG13 Ashton Kutcher Dermot Mulroney
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
Paranoia Rel PG13 Liam Hemsworth Gary Oldman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $4 Actual: $7
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
8.17.2012
The Expendables 2 LG R Sylvester Stallone Jason Statham
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $87 Actual: $85
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $215
ParaNorman Uni/Foc PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $55 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $51
The Odd Life of Timothy Green Dis PG Jennifer Garner Joel Edgerton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $45 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Sparkle Sony PG13 Jordin Sparks Whitney Houston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $24
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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