Weekend #7 of 2015 is looking like $179 million for the top 12 films this weekend (Friday-Sunday), well above the normal volume for this weekend and above last year, which was also a strong Presidents Day Weekend (see track below).
Opening at 3,645 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Fifty Shades of Grey from Focus/ Universal should average $18,600 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $67.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] The film should total $84 million over the first four days, including Monday. Early reviews yet at RottenTomatoes are a limp 44% positive so far, and dropping with each update, although the built-in audience from the book will hardly care about film reviews (at least initially). Fifty Shades of Grey is on track for around $190 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $220 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $410 million.
Opening at around 3,100 theaters Friday, Kingsman: The Secret Service from 20th Century Fox should average $8,600 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $26.5 million opening weekend). Including the Presidents Day holiday Monday, the film should total about $33 million the first four days. In early reviews, the film is averaging a fairly strong 77% positive score. Kingsman is on track for around $85 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $150 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $235 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND February 13-15, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | R | 44% | 67.5 | 190 | |
| Kingsman: Secret Service | Fox | R | 77% | 26.5 | 85 | |
SpongeBob and American Sniper are the main holdovers, continuing to provide significant support for the weekend box office.
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RETURNING FILMS February 13-15, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | -37% | 35.0 | 165 | |
| American Sniper | WB | -22% | 18.0 | 355 | |
| Jupiter Ascending | WB | -54% | 8.5 | 37 | |
| Paddington | Weins | -18% | 4.3 | 73 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | -25% | 3.8 | 85 | |
| Seventh Son | Uni | -50% | 3.6 | 9 | |
| Wedding Ringer | Sony | -27% | 3.5 | 63 | |
| Project Almanac | Par | -38% | 3.2 | 24 | |
| Black or White | Rel | -29% | 3.2 | 23 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $140 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 21st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $160 million (while 2013 was $126 million, 2012 was $143 million and 2011 was $130 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $179 million, up 28% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 12% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
2.14.2014
RoboCop Sony PG13 Joel Kinnaman Gary Oldman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $68 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $184
About Last Night Sony R Kevin Hart Michael Ealy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $55 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Endless Love Uni PG13 Alex Pettyfer Gabriella Wilde
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
Winter’s Tale WB PG13 Colin Farrell Russell Crowe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $18
2.15.2013
A Good Day to Die Hard Fox R Bruce Willis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $72 Actual: $67
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $237
Safe Haven Rel PG13 Josh Duhamel Julianne Hough
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $69 Actual: $71
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Escape from Planet Earth Weins PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $57
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
Beautiful Creatures WB PG13 Alice Englert Emma Thompson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $41
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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