Weekend #8 of 2015 is looking like $119 million for the top 12 films this weekend (Friday-Sunday), another weekend well above the normal volume for this weekend (see track below).
Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Hot Tub Time Machine 2 from Paramount should average $4,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $12.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] No early reviews yet at RottenTomatoes — never a sign of confidence. Hot Tub Time Machine 2 is on track for around $32 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $22 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $54 million.
This would be below the $64.6 million worldwide for Hot Tub Time Machine (released 3.26.2010 by MGM) $50.3 million domestic and $14.3 million overseas.
Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday, McFarland, USA from Disney should average $3,900 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $10.5 million opening weekend). In early reviews, the film is averaging a fairly strong 67% positive score. McFarland, USA is on track for around $35 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in maybe $1 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $36 million.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, The DUFF from Lionsgate and CBS Films should average $3,100 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $7.5 million opening weekend). In early reviews, the film is averaging a really good 89% positive score. The DUFF is on track for around $30 million domestic, with some decent word of mouth keeping it from flaming out very quickly. Overseas the film could bring in around $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND February 20-22, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Hot Tub Time Machine 2 | Par | R | n/a | 12.5 | 32 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | PG | 67% | 10.5 | 35 | |
| The DUFF | LG/Sum | PG13 | 89% | 7.5 | 30 | |
Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman join SpongeBob as the main holdovers providing significant support for the weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS February 20-22, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | -69% | 26.3 | 215 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | -40% | 19.0 | 175 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | -48% | 19.0 | 109 | |
| American Sniper | WB | -38% | 10.2 | 356 | |
| Jupiter Ascending | WB | -56% | 4.1 | 47 | |
| Paddington | Weins | -27% | 3.0 | 72 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | -24% | 2.7 | 85 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $99 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 42nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $98 million (while 2013 was $88 million, 2012 was $114 million and 2011 was $96 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very decent $119 million, up +20% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +21% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
2.21.2014
Pompeii Sony PG13 Kit Harrington Emily Browning
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $95
3 Days to Kill Rel PG13 Kevin Costner Hailee Steinfled
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
2.22.2013
Snitch LG/Sum PG13 The Rock Susan Sarandon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Dark Skies Weins PG13 Keri Russell Dakota Goyo
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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