Weekend #10 of 2015 is looking like $93 million for the top 12 films this weekend, significantly below the normal volume for this weekend (see track below).
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Chappie from Sony should average $7,300 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $22.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] No reviews at RottenTomatoes yet. Mediocre to bad early reviews at RottenTomatoes: 46% 32% positive overall. Chappie is on track for around $53 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $130 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $183 million.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, Unfinished Business from Fox should average $3,900 per theater Friday-Sunday (for an $11.0 million opening weekend). No reviews yet here, either. Early reviews are brutal: 8% 5% positive so far. Unfinished Business is on track for around $28 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in about $23 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $51 million.
Opening at around 1,400 theaters Friday, Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel from Fox Searchlight should average $5,700 per theater Friday-Sunday (for an $8.0 million opening weekend). Early reviews are reasonably supportive but weakening: 76% 69% 64% positive so far. Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is on track for around $31 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in about $95 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $126 million. This would be slightly below the $136.8 million worldwide for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (released 5.4.2012) with $46.4 million domestic and $90.4 million overseas.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 6-8, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Chappie | Sony | R | 46% | 22.0 | 53 | |
| Unfinished Business | Fox | R | 8% | 11.0 | 28 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | PG | 69% | 8.0 | 31 | |
Focus leads the holdovers, but none look to be over the significant $10 million weekend level.
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RETURNING FILMS March 6-8, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Focus | WB | -49% | 9.8 | 57 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | -36% | 7.6 | 115 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | -35% | 7.3 | 165 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | -32% | 5.3 | 44 | |
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | -53% | 5.1 | 158 | |
| American Sniper | WB | -32% | 5.0 | 365 | |
| Lazarus Effect | Rel | -56% | 4.7 | 19 | |
| The DUFF | LG/CBS | -38% | 4.4 | 39 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $125 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 26th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $131 million (while 2013 was $128 million, 2012 was $121 million and 2011 was $118 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a soft $93 million, down -25% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -29% from the same weekend last year. This is similar to last weekend’s sub-par performance after a long string of up weekends for most of 2015.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
3.7.2014
300: Rise of An Empire WB R Sullivan Stapleton Eva Green
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $45
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $122 Actual: $106
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $225
Mr Peabody & Sherman Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $32 Actual: $32
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $122 Actual: $111
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $161
3.8.2013
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis PG James Franco Mila Kunis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $74 Actual: $79
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $245 Actual: $235
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $258
Dead Man Down FilmDis R Colin Farrell Noomi Rapace
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $13 Actual: $11
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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