Weekend #12 of 2015 is looking like $139 million for the top 12 films this weekend, very much in line with comparable weekends the past few years.
Opening at around 3,750 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Insurgent from Lionsgate/Summit should average $15,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $59.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not good: 31% positive overall. Insurgent is on track for around $154 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $180 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $334 million.
This would be above the $288.7 million worldwide gross for Divergent (released 3.21.2014) with $150.9 million domestic and $137.8 million overseas.
Opening at 2,816 theaters Friday, The Gunman from Open Road Films should average $2,700 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $7.5 million opening weekend). Early reviews are weak: 23% positive so far. The Gunman is on track for around $16 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in about $10 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $26 million.
Opening at around 1,300 theaters Friday, Do You Believe? from Pure Flix should average $5,200 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $6.5 million opening weekend). No early reviews yet. Do You Believe? is on track for around $22 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in about $1 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $23 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 20-22, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Insurgent | LG/Sum | PG13 | 31% | 59.0 | 154 | |
| The Gunman | OpenRoad | R | 23% | 7.5 | 16 | |
| Do You Believe? | PureFlix | PG13 | n/a | 6.5 | 22 | |
Cinderella leads the holdovers with a very substantial second weekend to support the overall box office.
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RETURNING FILMS March 20-22, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Cinderella | Dis | -44% | 37.8 | 201 | |
| Run All Night | WB | -43% | 6.3 | 35 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | -29% | 4.4 | 124 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | -31% | 4.0 | 34 | |
| Focus | WB | -42% | 3.3 | 59 | |
| Chappie | Sony | -50% | 2.9 | 31 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | -38% | 2.5 | 163 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | -35% | 2.4 | 44 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $144 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 18th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $133 million (while 2013 was $130 million, 2012 was $204 million and 2011 was $109 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly normal $139 million, down -3 % from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but up +4% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
3.21.2014
Divergent LG/Sum PG13 Shailene Woodley Theo James
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $63 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $152 Actual: $151
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $138
Muppets Most Wanted Dis PG Ricky Gervais Ty Burrell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $64 Actual: $51
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $27
God’s Not Dead FREE PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $43 Actual: $61
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
3.22.2013
The Croods Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $44
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $161 Actual: $187
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $400
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis PG13 Gerard Butler Aaron Eckhart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $89 Actual: $99
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $62
Spring Breakers A24 R Vanessa Hudgens Selena Gomez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $18
Admission FOC PG13 Tina Fey Paul Rudd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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