Weekend #17 of 2015 is looking like $78 million for the top 12 films this weekend, well below the already low norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 2,900 theaters Friday (very close to the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Age of Adaline from Lionsgate/Summit should average $3,600 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $10.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are decent, however: 75% positive overall, suggesting the film might play better than the opening would otherwise suggest. Age of Adalaine is on track for around $35 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in maybe $30 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $65 million.
Expanding to an estimated 500 theaters Friday, Ex Machina from A24 should average $6,900 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $3.5 million semi-wide opening three-day weekend in addition to the $1.2 million in limited release to date). Reviews at RottenTomatoes are strong: 89% positive overall in early reviews. Ex Machina is on track for around $15 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in maybe $15 million (including the $7 million already in the bank from overseas, mostly from the UK), giving it a worldwide box office target of $30 million.
Opening at 1,045 theaters Friday, Little Boy from Open Road Films should average $2,600 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $2.7 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not kind: 11% positive overall. Little Boy is on track for around $4 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $1 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $5 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 24-26, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Age of Adaline | LG/Sum | PG13 | 75% | 10.5 | 35 | |
| Ex Machina | A24 | R | 89% | 3.5 | 15 | |
| Little Boy | Open Road | PG13 | 11% | 2.7 | 4 | |
Furious 7 continues to be the biggest holdover by far.
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RETURNING FILMS April 24-26, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Furious 7 | Uni | -43% | 16.7 | 360 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | -42% | 13.9 | 71 | |
| Unfriended | Uni | -54% | 7.3 | 44 | |
| Home | Fox | -32% | 7.3 | 166 | |
| Longest Ride | Fox | -45% | 3.9 | 38 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | -25% | 3.5 | 28 | |
| Monkey Kingdom | Dis | -33% | 3.1 | 24 | |
| Get Hard | WB | -37% | 3.1 | 86 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $107 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 40th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $100 million (while 2013 was $82 million, 2012 was $97 million and 2011 was $145 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very weak $78 million, down -27% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -24% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
4.25.2014
The Other Woman Fox PG13 Cameron Diaz Leslie Mann
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $81 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $113
Brick Mansions Rel PG13 Paul Walker David Belle
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $20
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $49
The Quiet Ones LG/Sum PG13 Jared Harris Sam Claflin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $9
4.26.2013
Pain and Gain Par R Mark Wahlberg The Rock
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $50 Actual: $50
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $36
The Big Wedding LG/Sum R Robert DeNiro Susan Sarandon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $18 Actual: $22
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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