Weekend #34 of 2015 is looking like $105 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).
Sinister 2 from Focus/Universal should open with a $15.5 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not going encouraging: 0% positive overall so far (with fewer than 10 reviews counted at this time…but still pretty grim). Sinister 2 is on track for around $32 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $34 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $66 million.
This would be below the $78 million worldwide for Sinister (released 10.12.2012) with $48 million domestic and $30 million overseas.
Hitman: Agent 47 from Fox should open with a $10.5 million three-day weekend. Critics are not on board: 6% positive reviews so far. Hitman: Agent 47 is on track for around $24 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $13 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $37 million.
American Ultra from Lionsgate should open with a $9.5 million three-day weekend. Critics are less than mediocre but the best of the three films opening this weekend: 44% positive reviews so far. American Ultra is on track for around $29 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $21 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 21-23, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Sinister 2 | Foc/Uni | R | 0% | 15.5 | 32 | |
| Hitman: Agent 47 | Fox | R | 6% | 10.5 | 24 | |
| American Ultra | LG | R | 44% | 9.5 | 29 | |
Straight Outta Compton will be the #1 holdover this weekend by far and still the #1 film overall.
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RETURNING FILMS August 21-23, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Straight Outta Compton | Uni | -48% | 31.5 | 180 | |
| Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation | Par | -36% | 11.0 | 189 | |
| The Man from U.N.C.L.E. | WB | -50% | 6.7 | 33 | |
| Fantastic Four | Fox | -53% | 3.8 | 54 | |
| The Gift | STX | -45% | 3.6 | 41 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | -37% | 3.5 | 174 | |
| Minions | Uni | -35% | 3.3 | 331 | |
| Vacation | WB | -45% | 2.9 | 60 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $87 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 46th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $102 million (while 2013 was $90 million, 2012 was $83 million and 2011 was $75 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $105 million, up +21% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +3% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
8.22.2014
If I Stay WB PG13 Chloe Moretz Mireille Enos
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $50
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Frank Miller’s Sin City: A Dame to Kill For Weins R Jessica Alba Powers Boothe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $26
When the Game Stands Tall Sony PG James Caviezel Alexander Ludwig
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $30
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
8.23.2013
Blue Jasmine Sony PG13 Cate Blanchett Sally Hawkins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $37 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $62
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones Sony PG13 Lilly Collins Jonathan Rhys Meyers
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
The World’s End Uni R Simon Pegg Nick Frost
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
You’re Next LG/Sum R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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