Articles

October 21, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 10.23-25.2015

Weekend #43 of 2015 is looking like $111 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

Steve Jobs from Universal should collect around a $18.5 million in its first wide weekend. Through Sunday, the total to date should be around $21 million. The film is on track for around $65 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $105 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $170 million.

Last Witch Hunter from Lionsgate should open with a $14.5 million weekend. The film is on track for around $40 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $110 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $150 million.

Paranormal Activity: Ghost Dimension from Paramount should open with a $11.5 million weekend. The film is on track for around $22 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $60 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $82 million.

Rock the Kasbah from Open Road Films should open with a $5.1 million weekend. The film is on track for around $12 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $10 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $22 million.

Jem and the Holograms from Universal should open with a $4.8 million weekend. The film is on track for around $9 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $4 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $13 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

October 23-25, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Steve Jobs Uni R 85% 18.5 65
Last Witch Hunter LG PG13 21% 14.5 40
Paranormal Activity: Ghost Dimension Par R n/a 11.5 22
Rock the Kasbah ORF R 10% 5.1 12
Jem and the Holograms Uni PG n/a 4.8 9
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

October 23-25, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Goosebumps Sony -40% 14.3 84
The Martian Fox -36% 13.7 212
Bridge of Spies Dis -32% 10.4 59
Hotel Transylvania 2 Sony -39% 7.7 172
Crimson Peak Uni -55% 5.7 32

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $93 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 45th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $103 million (while 2013 was $95 million, 2012 was $81 million and 2011 was $94 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very respectable $111 million, up +19% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up a smaller +7% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

10.24.2014

Ouija Uni PG13 Olivia Cooke
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $55 Actual: $51
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $52

John Wick LG/Sum R Keanu Reeves Adrianne Palicki
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $36

St. Vincent Weins PG13 Naomi Watts Melissa McCarthy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11

10.25.2013

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Par R Johnny Knoxville
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $32
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $113 Actual: $102
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $50

The Counselor Fox R Michael Fassbender Penelope Cruz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $54

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.