Weekend #29 of 2012 looks like what last weekend should have been: $272 million for the top 12 films, up 50% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 67% from the four-year average for the weekend.
Opening at 4,404 theaters, The Dark Knight Rises from Warner Brothers should average $43,600 per theater (for a $192 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a very good 86% positive. Mitch Salem’s SHOWBUZZDAILY review of The Dark Knight Rises is here, with links to retrospective reviews of all the other films in the Batman series. Dark Knight Rises stands at a preliminary $552 million ShowbuzzDaily domestic estimate. We have the domestic gross for Rises slightly higher than 2008’s Dark Knight, while the opening weekend should be substantially higher, as we expect a very strong front-loading pattern.
The opening weekend record to beat belongs to Marvel’s The Avengers ($207.4 million back in early May). If our forecast is right, Dark Knight Rises will rank second on the all-time opening weekend list, ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($169.2 million) a year ago.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| July 20-22, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| The Dark Knight Rises |
WB | PG13 | 86% | 192 | 552 | |
And the following chart chronicles the two Batman franchise attempts by Warner Brothers. The first started with some promise by Tim Burton (1989-1992) but then turned into a disaster and then catastrophe under Joel Schumacher (1995-1997). The current attempt, of course, under Christopher Nolan has been a remarkable case study in success.
| BATMAN TRACKWarner Brothers | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Critics Positive | Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | Worldwide Total | |||
| The Dark Knight |
7.18.2008 | 94% | 158.4 | 533.3 | 468.6 | 1,001.9 | |
| Batman Begins | 6.15.2005 | 85% | 48.7 | 205.3 | 167.4 | 372.7 | |
| Batman and Robin | 6.20.1997 | 13% | 42.9 | 107.3 | 130.9 | 238.2 | |
| Batman Forever | 6.16.1995 | 43% | 52.8 | 184.0 | 152.5 | 336.5 | |
| Batman Returns | 6.19.1992 | 78% | 45.7 | 162.8 | 104.0 | 266.8 | |
| Batman | 6.23.1989 | 71% | 40.5 | 251.2 | 160.1 | 411.3 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
A few other movies will get some business, but the weekend really belong to the Dark Knight.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| July 20-22, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | -47% | 24.5 | 179 | |
| Amazing Spider-Man | Sony | -50% | 17.2 | 300 | |
| Ted | Uni | -44% | 12.6 | 225 | |
| Brave | Dis | -51% | 5.5 | 235 | |
| Savages | Uni | -48% | 4.9 | 56 | |
| Magic Mike | WB | -51% | 4.5 | 118 | |
| TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection | LG | -51% | 2.8 | 65 | |
| Moonrise Kingdom | Foc Uni | -42% | 2.6 | 47 | |
| Madagascar 3 | Par DW | -45% | 2.0 | 217 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $163 million total, ranking 8th of 52 weeks. Last year (July 22-24) this weekend’s total was $181 million (while July 23-25, 2010 was $155 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a stunning $272 million, up 50% from this weekend last year and up 67% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7/22/11
Captain America: The First Avenger PAR PG13 Chris Evans Hugo Weaving
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $56 Actual: $65
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $183 Actual: $177
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $192
Friends with Benefits SONY R Justin Timberlake Mila Kunis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $94
7/23/10
Salt SONY PG13 Angelina Jolie Liev Schreiber
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $38 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $122 Actual: $118
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $175
Ramona and Beezus FOX G Joey King Selena Gomez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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