Weekend #32 of 2012 looks like a fairly typical second weekend of August: the last gasp of summer with three films headed for modest success. The top 12 films this weekend should total $136 million, up substantially from last week’s disaster weekend and near the pace for the same weekend the last few years.
Opening at about 3,600 theaters, The Bourne Legacy from Universal should average $10,400 per theater (for a $37.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] This would be on the low end for the Bourne films to date (Bourne Ultimatum opened August 2007 with $69.3 million, Bourne Supremacy opened July 2004 with $52.5 million, and Bourne Identity opened June 2002 with $27.1 million). But remember, the first three starred Matt Damon — this re-engineered continuation stars Jeremy Renner, who is being asked to carry a movie (and a new franchise) on his own. Critics have been lukewarm so far — just 55% so far at RottenTomatoes for Bourne Legacy. This is stark contrast to the repsect paid to the original trilogy (83% for Identity, 81% for Supremacy and 94% for Ultimatum), a testament to the quality of work done by director Paul Greengrass. Tony Gilroy (previously directed Duplicity and Michael Clayton) has some big shoes to fill on this one. We have Bourne Legacy headed for a preliminary $110 million domestic, underperforming all three Bourne films before it (Identity $121.7 million, Supremacy $176.2 million and Ultimatum $227.5 million).
Opening at around 3,250 theaters, The Campaign from Warner Brothers should average a $7,800 per theater (for a $25.5 million opening weekend). The electoral politics movie starring Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis should be headed for a domestic total of about $90 million. Critical sentiment is actually solid: 75% positive so far.
Opening at around 2,200 theaters today, Hope Springs from Sony (Steve Carrell as a marriage/sex therapist to Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones) should average around $6,300 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $14.0 million three-day opening weekend and around $20 million Wed-Sunday). The comedy-drama should be on track for about $56 million domestic. Reviews are currently 73% positive — a solid number but surprising that it is slightly lower than The Campaign‘s.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| August 10-12, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| The Bourne Legacy |
Uni | PG13 | 55% | 37.5 | 110 | |
| The Campaign | WB | R | 75% | 25.5 | 90 | |
| Hope Springs | Sony | PG13 | 73% | 14.0 | 56 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Finally knocked of its perch, The Dark Knight will still be at a very respectable level in its fourth weekend, almost $20 million. A movie in the top 10% of all fourth weekends grosses about $9.5 million by that weekend, while an average fourth weekend is only $2.2 million.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| August 10-12, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Dark Knight Rises | WB | -45% | 19.8 | 445 | |
| Total Recall | Sony | -56% | 11.3 | 65 | |
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | Fox | -46% | 7.9 | 41 | |
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | -37% | 5.5 | 156 | |
| Ted | Uni | -49% | 3.8 | 226 | |
| The Watch | Fox | -52% | 3.2 | 38 | |
| Step Up Revolution | Sum | -48% | 3.1 | 37 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $128 million total, ranking 23rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $143 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $132 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a respectable $136 million, down 5% from this weekend last year (which was helped by the continuing strength of Rise of the Planet of the Apes) but up 6% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8/12/11
Final Destination 5 WB R David Koechner Emma Bell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $51 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $115
The Help DIS PG13 Emma Stone Bryce Dallas Howard
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $131 Actual: $169
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $37
30 Minutes or Less SONY R Jesse Eisenberg Aziz Ansari
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
Glee: The 3D Concert Movie FOX PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
8/13/10
The Expendables LG R Sylvester Stallone Jason Statham
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $35
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $107 Actual: $103
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $171
Eat Pray Love SONY PG13 Julia Roberts Javier Bardem
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $81
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $124
Scott Pilgrim vs the World UNI PG13 Michael Cera Mary Elizabeth Winstead
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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