May 7, 2012

2012 Summer Movie Draft: The Race Is On

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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And the race begins.  Team Metcalf is off to an early lead in the second annual ShowBuzzDaily Summer Movie Draft, thanks to a big head start from Marvel’s The Avengers (Metcalf’s top pick and the #2 pick overall).  The Avengers came in officially at a resounding $207.4 million for its record-setting domestic opening weekend.  Keep in mind, Metcalf’s picks are very front-loaded: half the slate opens by May 25 and seven of eight films open by June 15.  So the lead better be enormous in the early going if he has any chance of holding on to win.  Click “read more” to see the tracking chart for each slate in the Draft. 

Late June and early July will be important for Team Salem (the reigning champion), with his top pick, Brave (#3 overall), opening June 22 and his second pick, The Amazing Spider-Man (#4 overall), opening Tuesday, July 3.  In the near term, June 1 is an important date for Salem’s slate, when his third pick, Snow White & the Hunstman (#9 overall), opens. 



Similarly, Team Weil’s slate really gets rolling later.  His top three picks open over two weeks in the heart of July:  his top pick, The Dark Knight Rises (#1 overall), debbuts July 20, while Ted (#6 overall) and Ice Age Continental Drift (#7 overall) both open July 13.  Before then, May 18 is an important date for Weil, when a mid-range pick, Battleship (#13 overall) has the capacity to surprise despite bad buzz.



We’ll update the results every Monday and Friday through the summer as the actual box office grosses roll in.  Leave a comment with your pick of which team will win, and if you feel up to it, make an estimate of how much each slate will end up grossing.


Look for a complete round up of the actual weekend grosses and updated  year-to-date box office figures later today.    



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.