June 4, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf


X-Men: First Class opens in first place but below expectations.  Weekend on pace to be up 24% over last year’s comparable weekend.

X-Men: First Class opened with $20 million on Friday, and it looks like the prequel will gross about $53 million from Friday-Sunday.  The film is headed for $160 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. 

The Hangover Part II should drop about 60% from its opening weekend, and the film has been downgraded to $273 million.  Kung Fu Panda 2 should drop 53%, and the animated sequel is now headed for $160 million.  Bridesmaids continues to perform well, down only 29% this weekend — the comedy has been upgraded yet again to $145 million. 

Click “Read more” to see the complete box office chart.

June 3-5, 2011          Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
X-Men: First Class (Fox) [$68  ]    $53.2   $20.3     $160
Hangover Part II (WB)    [$38.5]    $34.1   $10.6     $273–
Kung Fu Panda 2 (Par/DW) [$25.5]    $22.2   $ 6.3     $160-
Pirates Caribbean 4 (Dis)[$20  ]    $17.4   $ 5.0     $246
Bridesmaids (Uni)        [$12  ]    $11.8   $ 3.6     $144++
Thor (Par)               [$ 4.5]    $ 4.2   $ 1.2     $189
Fast Five (Uni)          [$ 3.5]    $ 3.1   $ 1.0     $211
Midnight in Paris (Sony) [ n/a ]    $ 2.6   $ 0.7      n/a

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is reminder of each film’s ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases

Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris expanded again to 147 theaters and was able to stay in the Top 10, landing at #8.  Midnight will gross about $6.6 million through Sunday.  Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life is now playing at 20 theaters and will average over $30,000 per theater.   

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $152 million total, up 24% from the same calendar weekend last year.

Top 12 Films: Weekend #22
2011  $152  (
+4% vs 2007-10 average; +24% vs 2010) 

Avg   $146 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $122  Get Him to Greek $18, Killers $16, Marmaduke $12

2009  $161  The Hangover $45, Land of the Lost $19
2008  $171  Kung Fu Panda $60, You Don’t Mess Zohan $38
2007  $130  Ocean’s Thirteen $36, Surf’s Up $18

Next Weekend

Opening next week is Super 8 from Paramount, along with Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer from Relativity.  Those movies will be compared to The Karate Kid ($55.7 million opening weekend) and The A-Team ($25.7 million)

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.