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With the help of some online bookmaking sites, we have the latest “official” odds for tonight’s Emmy Awards. Let’s take a look about what they say about the conventional wisdom, and make some adjustmentswhere they don’t make sense.
BEST COMEDY SERIES
Bookie Odds:
Modern Family – 1:7
The Office – 8:1
30 Rock – 8:1
Glee – 12:1
The Big Bang Theory – 16:1
Parks & Recreation – 25:1
ShowbuzzDaily Odds:
Modern Family – 1:2
Parks & Recreation – 5:1
30 Rock – 8:1
The Office – 10:1
The Big Bang Theory – 15:1
Glee – 18:1
The Emmys have a tendency, once they find a show they like, to reward it over and over again (Frasier won 5 years in a row, and more recently 30 Rock was a 3-time winner). The big money is betting that Modern Family will be the new Emmy darling, repeating last year’s win. This may well be the case, particularly because the consensus is that The Office and 30 Rock both had off years, and Big Bang Theory doesn’t seem to have the kind of comedy stature the voters look for. (Glee, with its hybrid 1-hour format and comedy-drama mix, is badly-placed for a win–especially since the show it starting to look like it may have peaked.) If there’s going to be a surprise, look out for the longshot on the board: Parks & Recreation hit its creative stride this season, and it has a chance for an upset.
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Bookie Odds:
Steve Carell, The Office – 1:6
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory – 7:2
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock – 14:1
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes – 33:1
Louis CK, Louie – 33:1
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory – 40:1
ShowbuzzDaily Odds:
Steve Carell, The Office – 1:10
Louis CK, Louie – 8:1
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock – 11:1
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory -13:1
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes -25:1
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory – 40:1
The smart money (or “smart” money) is going all-in on the idea that Steve Carell–who has never won–will take home a valedictory Emmy for his last season on The Office, and with weak competition, that sounds right (it helps that his last couple of episodes were the best of the season). Parsons and Baldwin have traded the award each of the last 2 years, so neither is “owed” one, and the feeling seems to be that Galecki is subsumed by his co-star. Matt LeBlanc is in the race for the getting-tired thrill of watching him play a surreal version of himself in Episodes (Larry David may not have invented that concept, but he owns it for now). Louis CK is deservedly the hot name of the moment; his problem is that Emmy voters are unlikely to know what to do with his auteur-driven show.
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Bookie Odds:
Laura Linney, The Big C – 4:6
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation – 7:4
Tina Fey, 30 Rock – 6:1
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie – 14:1
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope – 25:1
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly – 33:1
ShowbuzzDaily Odds:
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation – 8:5
Laura Linney, The Big C -2:1
Tina Fey, 30 Rock – 8:1
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie – 10:1
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly – 20:1
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope – 30:1
This has been a quirky category in recent years, with Edie Falco and Toni Collette each winning for little-watched Showtime comedy-dramas, and the bettors are jumping on Laura Linney as the impeccable successor to that crown with her turn as a funny cancer patient. Our thought is that the Academy will change gears and go for a more conventional (but still offbeat and classy) network comedy, with the well-liked Amy Poehler winning for Parks & Recreation. Fey and Falco already have their multiple Emmys, Plimpton is on the cusp between Lead and Supporting on Raising Hope, and McCarthy is likely getting a “welcome to the club” nomination.
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