May 20, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Now that the fall schedules have been announced by the broadcast networks, want to know who’s going to win the fall?  Which networks will gain ground?  Which nights will change hands?  What new shows will make it and what will fizzle?  Well, you have come to the right place.  ShowBuzzDaily proudly presents its Fall Ratings Forecast.  


We see CBS winning the fall, down only a single percentage point from last fall.  Its one-tenth of a rating point fall lead over FOX and NBC might seem narrow, but keep in mind CBS has the Super Bowl in 2013  That one night is worth about two tenths of a rating point across an entire season.  So if CBS is doing a 2.7 rating in the fall with Adults 18-49, the Super Bowl alone pushes its season to a 2.9.  If anything else hits big, The Eye network could reach a 3.0 rating for the September-May season, a huge achievement in today’s fragmented media world.




NBC and FOX will be battling for second place.  NBC’s full week average should be up about 9%, thanks entirely to its adding an additional fall cycle of The Voice to the normal winter/spring cycle.  That single move (which could have been done last year) will push NBC’s Monday up over 140% versus last fall.  (Remember Nick Lachey and The Sing-Off?  The Playboy Club?)  But NBC’s winter is the opposite of CBS’s:  in the fall, NBC’s weekly average is heavily supported by NFL Sunday Night Football.  Starting in January, as the NFL regular season ends, NBC’s numbers will begin eroding away from FOX’s down toward ABC’s, and possibly all the way back into fourth place by May if NBC’s new shows all bomb.


To see our complete forecast, including projections for each network program and time period, come back later this afternoon when we dive into Monday night’s primetime schedule.  Our exclusive ratings forecast series will then continue throughout the week. 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.