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CBS narrowly won the second Friday of the season with a 1.5 Adult 18-49 rating (each of the three scripted programs was down 0.2 from premiere week), while NBC and FOX followed closely with a 1.4 rating, fueled by lower cost unscripted fare. Dateline averaged a 1.6 over two hours and peaked at a 1.9 from 10:30-11:00, tying it with Blue Bloods in the lead-in to late local news. Of most concern to CBS is the 8 pm entry A Gifted Man, which is already down to a 1.2 (hitting our ShowBuzzDaily fall ratings forecast).
Now 12 days into the fall season, FOX leads with a 3.29 rating, followed by CBS at a 3.12. ABC is in third with a 2.66, and NBC trails at a 2.27. The CW averages a 0.76 season to date.
FRIDAY FALL 2011 Estimates Episode Rating
May Sep #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Extreme Makeov 1.4 1.4
900 Shark Tank 1.4 1.3
1000 20/20 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.2
CBS
800 A Gifted Man 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2
900 CSI New York 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.6
1000 Blue Bloods 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.8
NBC
800 Chuck 1.2 1.2 10/28
900 Grimm 1.2 1.2 10/28
1000 Dateline NBC 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.6
FOX
800 Kitchen Nightm 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6
900 Fringe 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2
CW
800 Nikita n/a n/a 0.6 0.6
900 Supernatural n/a n/a 0.8 0.7
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out. CW shows are not currently estimated because we have incomplete historical data for the network’s time periods. CW estimates should be available later this season or early next season.
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