>NBC had a terrific Monday after the Super Bowl, taking full advantage of the most-watched program in TV history to establish The Voice on its new night and deliver a solid opening for Smash. However, there was significant tune-out over the course of the new Broadway drama, suggesting the audience for the show might settle down in coming weeks. But The Voice is on its way to upsetting the balance of power on the first night of the television week.
Nightly Primetime Average
Monday NBC CBS ABC FOX
02.06.2012 5.7 3.6 2.4 2.3
02.07.2011 1.6 3.5 2.9 3.4
NBC had a terrific time period premiere for The Voice, averaging a 6.6 rating from 8-10 pm, starting at a 5.3 at 8:00 and building to a 6.2 at 8:30, 7.3 at 9:00 and a very strong 7.7 in the 9:30-10:00 half hour leading into Smash.
At 10 pm, Smash averaged a 3.8 rating for the hour, starting at a 4.2 at 10:00 and falling to a 3.4 from 10:30-11:00.
As the table below indicates, our prediction was way too bearish for The Voice, but much closer for Smash. The 10:30 drop for Smash was correctly forecast, and it indicates that further drops in the coming early weeks of sampling are likely. But there is no doubt about the potency of The Voice. Although it should come back down to Earth somewhat, these are transformative numbers for Monday night.
Monday, February 6, 2012
NBC — Adults 18-49 Rating
ShowBuzzDaily Prediction / Fast National Rating
Program Rating Pred. Fast
8:00 The Voice 4.6 6.6
10:00 Smash 3.3 3.8
by half hour
8:00 The Voice 4.2 5.3
8:30 The Voice 4.4 6.2
9:00 The Voice 4.7 7.3
9:30 The Voice 4.9 7.7
10:00 Smash 3.6 4.2
10:30 Smash 3.0 3.4
Despite the incredible business NBC did last night, CBS turned in a 3.6 rating for the night, still up slightly over the same night last year. Nonetheless, note that both Two and a Half Men and Mike & Molly are on track to set season lows last night. Last year on this night: How I Met Your Mother (3.8), Rules of Engagement (3.2), Two and a Half Men (4.4), Mike & Molly (3.6) and Hawaii Five-O (2.8).
CBS Mon High Low 01.2 01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06
How I Met Your 4.9 3.9 3.9 2.2R 4.4 2.3R 2.5R 4.0*
2 Broke Girls 7.1 4.2 4.4 2.4R 4.6 2.6R 2.7R 4.3*
2.5 Men 10.7 4.2 4.5 2.3R 4.6 2.9R 3.0R 4.2*
Mike & Molly 4.8 3.4 3.8 2.3R 3.8 2.4R 2.3R 3.4*
Hawaii Five-O 3.4 2.7 2.9 1.6R 2.8 1.6R 1.7R 2.7*
ABC placed third with a 2.4 rating with an okay rating for The Bachelor but a soft original episode rating for Castle. Last year on this night, ABC averaged a 2.9 rating: The Bachelor (3.2) and Castle repeat (2.5).
ABC Mon High Low 01.2 01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06
Dancing Stars 4.0 2.8 — — — — — —
You Deserve It 1.7 0.8 — — — — — —
The Bachelor 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.6*
Castle 3.2 2.0 — 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.4R 2.0*
FOX was hurt the most by NBC’s resurgence, with House setting a new season low and Alcatraz shattering its season low record. Last year on this night, FOX averaged a 3.4 rating with a much stronger House (4.3) and Chicago Code (2.4).
FOX Mon High Low 01.2 01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06
Terra Nova 3.1 2.1 — — — — — —
House 3.9 2.4 1.2R 1.2R — 3.1 2.9 2.4*
Alcatraz 3.3 2.2 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.2*
