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October 25, 2011
 

The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS October 24 (Updated with FOX Numbers)

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>CBS has strong ratings in the fast nationals for Monday, but much of that is caused by Baltimore station WJZ carrying the Ravens-Jaguars Monday Night Football game rather than the normal network lineup.  All CBS shows appear above their season average (see the table below) except Two and a Half Men, which is still up significantly over last week.  Expect that the official ratings for the CBS Monday programs will drop one tenth (and in some cases two tenths) in the official nationals.

MONDAY FALL 2011    ShowBuzz         Episode Rating      
                    Estimate    #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Dancing           3.9      4.0  3.3  3.1  3.0  3.3  3.1* 3.3

1000 Castle            2.6      3.2  3.1  2.5  2.1  2.5  2.5* 2.7
CBS
 800 How I Met         3.3      4.9  4.5  4.5  4.0  4.2  4.3* 4.4
 830 2 Broke Girls     3.2      7.1  4.6  4.5  4.3  4.4  4.6* 4.5
 900 2.5 Men           4.2      10.7 7.4  6.2  5.9  5.3  5.6* 7.1
 930 Mike & Molly      3.6      4.8  4.3  3.9  3.9  4.4*      4.2
1000 Hawaii Five-O     2.7      3.4  3.3  3.2  2.7  3.1  3.3* 3.1
NBC
 800 The Sing-Off      2.4      1.9  1.7  1.8  1.5  1.6  1.5* 1.7
1000 Playboy Club      2.1      1.6  1.3  1.2                 1.4
FOX
 800 Terra Nova        2.5      3.1  3.1  2.5  2.8            2.9
 900 House             3.3      3.9  2.7  3.1                 3.2
CW
 800 Gossip Girl       n/a      0.7  0.7  0.6  0.6  0.6*      0.7
 900 Hart of Dixie     n/a      0.8  0.8  0.6  0.6  0.8*      0.7

Note: Ratings with * are fast nationals and subject to adjustment

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out.

ABC’s Dancing with the Stars (3.1 fast national rating) and Castle (2.5) are below their season averages (3.3 and 2.7, respectively).  Not a disaster night but not anything to be proud of.

NBC’s The Sing-Off (1.5) matched a season- and series-low.  And “Prime Suspect Week” (four days of Prime Suspect at 10 pm, most of them repeats!) started quietly with a 0.7 rating at 10 pm.

FOX’s fast nationals for Game 5 of the World Series averaged a 3.8 from 8-11 pm ET.  When the official ratings are in (correctly tabulating each time zone and including the post-11 pm portion), we expect the Game 5 rating to hit a 4.1 rating (and possibly a 4.2).  Last night was not an elimination game (similar to 2008 and 2010) so we did not expect to see a lift in the sluggish rating.  Game 6 on Wednesday night will be the first elimination game — so we should see a 5 or a 6 rating for that one.  If St Louis wins Game 6 and forces the ultimate elimination game, a Game 7, the rating might rise to an 8 or 9 Thursday.

  World Series  Game1 Game2 Game3 Game4 Game5

  18-49 Rating   Wed   Thu   Sat   Sun   Mon
  2007 BOS-COL   5.8   5.3   4.3   7.1   —  
  2008 PHI-TAM   4.8   4.0   3.2   5.1   4.0
  2009 NYY-PHI   6.3   5.8   4.7   7.8   5.3
  2010 SFG-TEX   4.7   4.0   2.9   4.3   4.2
  2011 TEX-STL   4.2   4.0   3.5*  4.2   4.1*
                                          *est. official rating




About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.