>CBS has strong ratings in the fast nationals for Monday, but much of that is caused by Baltimore station WJZ carrying the Ravens-Jaguars Monday Night Football game rather than the normal network lineup. All CBS shows appear above their season average (see the table below) except Two and a Half Men, which is still up significantly over last week. Expect that the official ratings for the CBS Monday programs will drop one tenth (and in some cases two tenths) in the official nationals.
MONDAY FALL 2011 ShowBuzz Episode Rating
Estimate #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Dancing 3.9 4.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.1* 3.3
1000 Castle 2.6 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.5* 2.7
CBS
800 How I Met 3.3 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.2 4.3* 4.4
830 2 Broke Girls 3.2 7.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.6* 4.5
900 2.5 Men 4.2 10.7 7.4 6.2 5.9 5.3 5.6* 7.1
930 Mike & Molly 3.6 4.8 4.3 3.9 3.9 4.4* 4.2
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.3* 3.1
NBC
800 The Sing-Off 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5* 1.7
1000 Playboy Club 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.4
FOX
800 Terra Nova 2.5 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.9
900 House 3.3 3.9 2.7 3.1 3.2
CW
800 Gossip Girl n/a 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6* 0.7
900 Hart of Dixie n/a 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8* 0.7
Note: Ratings with * are fast nationals and subject to adjustment
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out.
ABC’s Dancing with the Stars (3.1 fast national rating) and Castle (2.5) are below their season averages (3.3 and 2.7, respectively). Not a disaster night but not anything to be proud of.
NBC’s The Sing-Off (1.5) matched a season- and series-low. And “Prime Suspect Week” (four days of Prime Suspect at 10 pm, most of them repeats!) started quietly with a 0.7 rating at 10 pm.
FOX’s fast nationals for Game 5 of the World Series averaged a 3.8 from 8-11 pm ET. When the official ratings are in (correctly tabulating each time zone and including the post-11 pm portion), we expect the Game 5 rating to hit a 4.1 rating (and possibly a 4.2). Last night was not an elimination game (similar to 2008 and 2010) so we did not expect to see a lift in the sluggish rating. Game 6 on Wednesday night will be the first elimination game — so we should see a 5 or a 6 rating for that one. If St Louis wins Game 6 and forces the ultimate elimination game, a Game 7, the rating might rise to an 8 or 9 Thursday.
World Series Game1 Game2 Game3 Game4 Game5
18-49 Rating Wed Thu Sat Sun Mon
2007 BOS-COL 5.8 5.3 4.3 7.1 —
2008 PHI-TAM 4.8 4.0 3.2 5.1 4.0
2009 NYY-PHI 6.3 5.8 4.7 7.8 5.3
2010 SFG-TEX 4.7 4.0 2.9 4.3 4.2
2011 TEX-STL 4.2 4.0 3.5* 4.2 4.1*
*est. official rating
