>
A few notes: these projections are for original episodes (no repeats) aired in the 4th quarter of 2011. Series premieres will likely be .3-.4 higher, thanks to network marketing pushes, and then tend to go down over time. We’ll be updating the numbers after we see full pilots and also as we get a feel for the networks’ summer promotional campaigns.
ABC. The only network with exactly the same Monday schedule as last year, ABC should be down slightly from last fall but still #1 for the night.
CBS. Two and a Half Men should be down about 10% from last fall’s Charlie Sheen version, but the decline would have been steeper if they hadn’t been able to add Ashton Kutcher in his place. 2 Broke Girls, the only new CBS show on Monday, should hold its How I Met Your Mother lead-in fairly well. However, without any time periods up on Monday, we see CBS declining from last year and falling further behind ABC.
FOX. Terra Nova and the return of House to 9 pm boosts FOX’s Monday above last fall’s terrible campaign, and the night could challenge for second place on Monday.
NBC. Sing-Off is just slightly better than the awful Chuck/Event combo last year. Similarly, Playboy Club is just 10% better than flop Chase in 2010, which leaves NBC still in last place for the night. NBCs real chance for a reborn Monday will have to wait for January when The Voice returns and provides a solid lead-in for Smash.
About the Author
More articles by Mitch Salem »
