>Two and a Half Men premiered with a 10.3 Adult 18-49 rating, about equal to a good Sunday Night Football game but not at the level of an AFC Championship game, as CBS head Les Moonves boldly predicted. Nonetheless, this is a great number to welcome Ashton Kutcher to the show. Can the show maintain this level for the season? Of course, not. We estimate Two and a Half Men will settle into a high-5 rating next week and a high-4 in subsequent weeks, still well above our projected rating for the quarter.
The news is not good for NBC. Both The Sing-Off and Playboy Club were under a 2 rating and below our meager forecast for the entire quarter. The Sing-Off was a moderate success in December (against mostly repeat competition), but it just couldn’t stand up to real competition of season premieres. And Playboy Club looks DOA, a 1.6 demo rating and only 5 million viewers 2+ (Castle attracted over 13 million viewers on ABC in the time period and Hawaii Five-O had 12 million). In all probability, the NBC numbers will remain the same in coming weeks or drift down slightly.
2 Broke Girls is off to a terrific start with a 7 demo rating. It should go down a high-3 rating next week in its normal 8:30 time period, but a low-4 rating is not impossible.On ABC, Dancing with the Stars opened about where we expected, while Castle continue to impress (only one-tenth of a rating point behind time period leader Hawaii Five-O). ABC’s patience with Castle is admirable, and the show has slowly and increasingly taken good advantage of its Dancing lead-in.
MONDAY FALL 2011 Estimates Episode Rating
May Sep #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Dancing 3.7 3.6 3.9
900 Dancing 4.4 4.2 3.9
1000 Castle 2.6 2.6 3.3
CBS
800 How I Met 3.3 3.3 4.9
830 2 Broke Girls 3.0 3.2 7.0 (special 9:30 time)
900 2.5 Men 4.1 4.2 10.3
930 Mike & Molly 3.4 3.6 9/26
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7 2.7 3.4
NBC
800 The Sing-Off 2.2 2.3 1.9
900 The Sing-Off 2.4 2.5 1.8
1000 Playboy Club 2.1 2.1 1.6
FOX
800 Terra Nova 2.7 2.5 9/26
900 House 3.4 3.3 10/3
CW
800 Gossip Girl n/a n/a 9/26
900 Hart of Dixie n/a n/a 9/26
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out.
