>In one week, the curtain goes up on the new television season. To get you ready for the madness of Premiere Week on broadcast television, we have summarized the ShowBuzzDaily ratings estimates for MONDAYS this Fall. The first column in the chart below includes the original estimates from late May (after the network upfront presentations to advertisers), while the second column includes some tweaks we have made based on the quality of the pilot, our sense of how the series will hold up over time, and reaction to on-air promotion and marketing over the summer.
The main change in our estimates for Monday nights is the reduction of the expected rating for ABC’s Dancing with the Stars. Reaction to the casting for this cycle has been rather muted. While we don’t expect ratings to crash, the overall numbers should be down a touch. Most of the lost audience ends up on The Sing-Off on NBC according to our estimates, although the NBC numbers remain soft. We have raised the estimates for most of the CBS comedies given the extra attention the addition of Ashton Kutcher has received for Two and a Half Men, as well as the strong promotion for 2 Broke Girls. On FOX, we have reduced the ratings estimate for Terra Nova. While we continue to think the time-traveling, prehistoric family drama will open well, we continue to feel the series is vulnerable and unsustainable.
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out.
MONDAY FALL 2011 Estimates Episode Rating
May Sep #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Dancing 3.7 3.6
900 Dancing 4.4 4.2
1000 Castle 2.6 2.6
CBS
800 How I Met 3.3 3.3
830 2 Broke Girls 3.0 3.2
900 2.5 Men 4.1 4.2
930 Mike & Molly 3.4 3.6
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7 2.7
NBC
800 The Sing-Off 2.2 2.3
900 The Sing-Off 2.4 2.5
1000 Playboy Club 2.1 2.1
FOX
800 Terra Nova 2.7 2.5
900 House 3.4 3.3
CW
800 Gossip Girl n/a n/a
900 Hart of Dixie n/a n/a
Click below to read the UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week:
Click below to read the ORIGINAL RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week (from May):
About the Author
Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on screened.com and the-burg.com. In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."
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