We are estimating Game 1 of the World Series last night (Detroit at San Francisco) will go up from a 3.2 in the fast nationals to around a 3.8 in the official nationals later today. Although that will be enough to win the night, it will be the second-lowest Game 1 in history (only 2006’s Game 1 between St Louis and Detroit on a Saturday night was lower). The other networks were very similar to recent Wednesday night performances.
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WEDNESDAY
8-11 pm
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Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
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ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps |
9.19 |
9.26 |
10.3 |
10.10 |
10.17 |
10.24 |
10.19.2011 |
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FOX |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1.8 |
3.8* |
4.2 |
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CBS |
3.1 |
— |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
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ABC |
3.1 |
— |
2.9 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
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NBC |
1.6 |
— |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
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World Series Game 1 Track. Not a pretty picture at all.
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WORLD SERIES Game 1 |
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Last 10 Years |
AL |
NL |
18-49 Rating |
Millions Vwrs 2+ |
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2003 |
NYY |
FLA |
6.0 |
17.7 |
|
2004 |
BOS |
STL |
8.0 |
23.2 |
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2005 |
CHW |
HOU |
4.6 |
15.0 |
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2006 |
DET |
STL |
3.6 |
12.8 |
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2007 |
BOS |
COL |
5.8 |
16.9 |
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2008 |
TB |
PHI |
4.8 |
14.6 |
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2009 |
NYY |
PHI |
6.3 |
19.5 |
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2010 |
TEX |
SF |
4.7 |
15.0 |
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2011 |
TEX |
STL |
4.2 |
14.2 |
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2012 |
DET |
SF |
3.8* |
13.2* |
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Winning team bolded. Game 1 played on Saturday through 2006; moved to Wednesday in 2007
* — adjusted fast national ratings
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World Series Game 1 Trends over major eras since the beginning of the Nielsen People Meter in 1987.
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WORLD SERIES Game 1 |
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Averages by Era |
18-49 Rating |
Millions Vwrs 2+ |
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1987-1993: Pre-Strike
|
10.1 |
26.9 |
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1995-2002: Steroids |
7.1 |
19.5 |
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2003-2011: No PEDs |
5.3 |
16.5 |
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FOX WED Track. World Series Game 1 in the official nationals should be only slightly better than a typical Wednesday X Factor episode.
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FOX WEDNESDAY
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Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
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ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
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Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps |
9.19 |
9.26 |
10.3 |
10.10 |
10.17 |
10.24 |
10.19.2011 |
|
The X Factor |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
2.3 |
3.8*
(WS G1 DET-SF) |
4.2 (WS G1 TEX-STL) |
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ABC Wednesday Track. Nashville has bottomed out at a 2.0 rating — not what we expected it could do but not horrible for a 10 pm drama in today’s environment.
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ABC WEDNESDAY
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Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
|
ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps |
9.26 |
10.3 |
10.10 |
10.17 |
10.24 |
10.19.2011 |
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The Middle |
2.8 |
2.9 (8-9pm) |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
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The Neighbors |
2.8* |
3.2 (9:30) |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
3.1 (Suburg) |
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Modern Family |
5.0 |
5.5 |
— |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.6 |
|
Suburgatory |
3.0 |
— |
— |
4.9 (Modern Family) |
2.8 |
2.7 |
3.0 (Happy Endings) |
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Nashville |
2.5 |
1.5 (Revenge Recap) |
— |
2.8 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.5 (Revenge) |
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NBC Wednesday Track. Chicago Fire had a decent rebound in week three. In a few more weeks we should know if it is normally closer to a 1.5 or 1.9 in a typical week.
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NBC WEDNESDAY
|
Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
|
ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps |
9.26 |
10.3 |
10.10 |
10.17 |
10.24 |
10.19.2011 |
|
Animal Practice |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
2.1 (Up All Night) |
|
Guys with Kids |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.2 (Whitney) |
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L&O SVU |
1.6 |
2.1 |
— |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.3 (Harry’s Law) |
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Chicago Fire |
1.5 |
— |
— |
1.9 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.2 (SVU) |
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CBS Wednesday Track. The three shows are in a very established pattern.
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CBS WEDNESDAY
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Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
|
ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps |
9.19 |
9.26 |
10.3 |
10.10 |
10.17 |
10.24 |
10.19.2011 |
|
Survivor |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
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Criminal Minds |
3.7 |
— |
3.1 |
— |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
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CSI |
2.5 |
— |
2.5 |
— |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
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WEDNESDAY Ratings
Preliminary ratings are delayed by Nielsen until at least 9:30 am PT (90 minutes past due). The ratings service is performing extra “quality checks,” so be prepared for unusually high quality ratings later this morning!
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