THE SKED: WEDNESDAYS This Fall

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WEDENESDAYS this Fall officially start September 21, although several series get an early start tonight: Survivor on CBS, Up All Night and Free Agents on NBC in a special 10-11 pm time period after the finale of America’s Got Talent (the comedies settle into their 8 pm hour next week), and the reality duo H8R and America’s Next Top Model on The CW.  Click “read more” to see the latest ratings projections for Wednesday nights.

At ABC, we have raised the ratings projection for Suburgatory and Revenge but reduced Happy Endings one-tenth of a rating point each.  The net effect on ABC’s Wednesday night average is minimal.  CBS ratings projections are the same as we issued in May, as the three shows are returning, known quantities.  On NBC we have raised Up All Night, thinking the heavy promotion and tinkering with the series’ workplace arena are positives.  Free Agents has the same projection, meaning its fall-off from Up All Night will be even steeper and prompt a quicker call to the bullpen.  FOX is basically the same as the May projections, with X-Factor a solid but not dominant force.

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out.  CW shows are not currently estimated because we have incomplete historical data for the network’s time periods.  CW estimates should be available later this season or early next season. 

WEDNESDAY FALL 2011 Estimates         Episode Rating     
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 The Middle     2.7   2.7   9/21
 830 Suburgatory    2.3   2.4   9/28
 900 Modern Family  4.6   4.6   9/21
 930 Happy Endings  3.0   2.9   9/28
1000 Revenge        2.2   2.3   9/21 
CBS
 800 Survivor       3.6   3.6   9/14
 900 Criminal Minds 3.7   3.7   9/21
1000 CSI            2.6   2.6   9/21
NBC
 800 Up All Night   1.9   2.1   9/14
 830 Free Agents    1.6   1.6   9/14
 900 Harry’s Law    2.2   2.2   9/21
1000 L&O SVU        2.3   2.3   9/21
FOX
 800 X-Factor       3.3   3.3   9/21   
 900 X-Factor       3.7   3.7   
 930 Hate My Teenge 2.6   2.5   11/30
CW
 800 H8R            n/a   n/a   9/14
 900 Next Top Model n/a   n/a   9/14