September 14, 2011


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Salem
Tags: , , , , , ,


WEDENESDAYS this Fall officially start September 21, although several series get an early start tonight: Survivor on CBS, Up All Night and Free Agents on NBC in a special 10-11 pm time period after the finale of America’s Got Talent (the comedies settle into their 8 pm hour next week), and the reality duo H8R and America’s Next Top Model on The CW.  Click “read more” to see the latest ratings projections for Wednesday nights.

At ABC, we have raised the ratings projection for Suburgatory and Revenge but reduced Happy Endings one-tenth of a rating point each.  The net effect on ABC’s Wednesday night average is minimal.  CBS ratings projections are the same as we issued in May, as the three shows are returning, known quantities.  On NBC we have raised Up All Night, thinking the heavy promotion and tinkering with the series’ workplace arena are positives.  Free Agents has the same projection, meaning its fall-off from Up All Night will be even steeper and prompt a quicker call to the bullpen.  FOX is basically the same as the May projections, with X-Factor a solid but not dominant force.

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out.  CW shows are not currently estimated because we have incomplete historical data for the network’s time periods.  CW estimates should be available later this season or early next season. 

WEDNESDAY FALL 2011 Estimates         Episode Rating     
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
 800 The Middle     2.7   2.7   9/21

 830 Suburgatory    2.3   2.4   9/28
 900 Modern Family  4.6   4.6   9/21
 930 Happy Endings  3.0   2.9   9/28
1000 Revenge        2.2   2.3   9/21 

 800 Survivor       3.6   3.6   9/14
 900 Criminal Minds 3.7   3.7   9/21
1000 CSI            2.6   2.6   9/21
 800 Up All Night   1.9   2.1   9/14
 830 Free Agents    1.6   1.6   9/14
 900 Harry’s Law    2.2   2.2   9/21

1000 L&O SVU        2.3   2.3   9/21
 800 X-Factor       3.3   3.3   9/21   
 900 X-Factor       3.7   3.7   
 930 Hate My Teenge 2.6   2.5   11/30

 800 H8R            n/a   n/a   9/14
 900 Next Top Model n/a   n/a   9/14

Click below to read the UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week:

                      MON      TUE      WED      THU      FRI      SAT      SUN     

Click below to read the ORIGINAL RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week (from May):  

                      MON      TUE      WED      THU      FRI      SAT      SUN      FULL WEEK

Click below to find out what to watch this fall:

                      MON      TUE      WED      THU       FRI      WEEKEND

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."